ECONOMIC RESEARCH

January 2014 Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

January 30, 2014

Emerging market conditions have continued to be quite choppy, including a significant market correction in early 2014. We do not anticipate a sustained pull-back from emerging markets, but investors have become increasingly sensitive to country risks, which will test countries that experience heightened political uncertainties or do not take timely and decisive measures to address weaknesses in policy frameworks. As our baseline scenario, we continue to expect a gradual rebound in capital flows in 2014 and 2015, in line with a projected sustained pick-up in world growth and a gradual Fed exit. However, flows will remain at a much lower level relative to GDP than over 2010-2012 and uncertainty around our baseline projection remains high.