The Capital Flows Report is one of the IIF's flagship publications and is generally issued three times a year: in January, and around the time of the IIF Spring and Annual Membership meetings (usually May/June and October).
The report provides data on the magnitude and composition of private capital flows to (and from) a sample of 30 key emerging market economies in the four major regions. We produce forecasts for the current year and the year ahead. The report also provides analysis on the factors driving those flows and considers both likely and desirable policy shifts.
The data are widely used and referenced in the press and the international financial community. For more detailed information on our capital flows data, please consult our User Guide, which answers frequently asked questions (FAQ) and explains key concepts used in our report. If you would like to receive our reports and data when they are released or if you have questions about capital flows, please contact Robin Koepke.
Overview of IIF Capital Flows Data
This one-pager provides a compact summary of our various proprietary capital flows databases. IIF members have access to all our capital flows data, while a few selected datasets are also made available to the public. All datasets are updated regularly and cover the IIF group of 30 emerging markets.
Capital Flows Publications
July 07, 2014
This one-pager provides a compact summary of our various proprietary capital flows databases. IIF members have access to all our capital flows data, while a few selected datasets are also made available to the public. All datasets are updated regularly and cover the IIF group of 30 emerging markets.Read More
May 29, 2014
Private capital inflows to emerging markets are benefiting from a supportive global environment, including an improving macro outlook and strong risk appetite. The crisis in Ukraine is weighing heavily on flows to Russia, however, which is likely to result in a decline in aggregate capital flows to EMs in 2014. This projected decline also reflects reduced inflows to China, given the government’s efforts to discourage short-term capital inflows. Capital flows to EMs remain vulnerable to a possible escalation of the Ukraine crisis and surprises in the timing, pace and magnitude of eventual Fed policy tightening.
Following the publication of the May 2014 Capital Flows Report, Charles Collyns hosted a teleconference on May 29, 2014. The recording of the briefing and the Q & A session is now available for replay.Read More
May 25, 2014
The Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary stimulus measures have revived a controversial policy debate about the impact of U.S. monetary policy on capital flows to emerging markets. This paper presents evidence of an important transmission channel that has not explicitly been considered in the existing literature: a market expectations channel. When market participants adjust their expectations of future U.S. monetary policy, they respond by changing their portfolio allocations to emerging markets. Shifts in expectations towards easier monetary policy result in greater foreign portfolio inflows and vice versa.Read More
January 30, 2014
Emerging market conditions have continued to be quite choppy, including a significant market correction in early 2014. We do not anticipate a sustained pull-back from emerging markets, but investors have become increasingly sensitive to country risks, which will test countries that experience heightened political uncertainties or do not take timely and decisive measures to address weaknesses in policy frameworks. As our baseline scenario, we continue to expect a gradual rebound in capital flows in 2014 and 2015, in line with a projected sustained pick-up in world growth and a gradual Fed exit. However, flows will remain at a much lower level relative to GDP than over 2010-2012 and uncertainty around our baseline projection remains high.Read More
December 09, 2013
This presentation by IIF Managing Director and Chief Economist Charles Collyns at the International Finance Forum hosted by the George Washington University Elliot School of International Affairs discusses the swings in foreign capital inflows to emerging markets over the past twenty years. While access to foreign capital has important benefits for recipient economies, boom-bust cycles in capital inflows have often amplified economic volatility and elicited a variety of policy responses, including resort to capital controls. The presentation analyzes the different approaches that have been taken, and argues that increasing financial market depth should over time increase resilience to capital flow shocks and reduce the need for unorthodox measures.Read More
December 04, 2013
We present evidence suggesting that the Fed’s impact on portfolio inflows to emerging markets may be more nuanced than widely assumed. We estimate a simple econometric model indicating that the recent retrenchment episode was primarily driven by a shift in market expectations towards an earlier tightening of Fed policy, rather than a markdown in expectations about EM economic performance. Looking ahead, our model suggests that the Fed’s impact on EM portfolio inflows depends on the pace of Fed exit relative to market expectations and the volatility of market expectations over time. A slower than expected Fed exit and stable market expectations would tend to boost portfolio inflows, while a more rapid exit than anticipated could result in renewed retrenchment, particularly if market expectations were to fluctuate widely.Read More
October 07, 2013
Capital flows to emerging economies have seen a sharp retrenchment since mid-May 2013, prompted in part by a shift in market expectations towards an earlier normalization of U.S. monetary policy. In the immediate future, EM capital inflows look set for a rebound, in part because the Fed has delayed its tapering of asset purchases. We project that this recovery will be sustained through 2014, barring any major shift in market views about the course of Fed monetary tightening. Capital inflows are likely to be less buoyant than in recent years, however, as the fundamental underpinnings of EM growth have deteriorated.Read More