• Economic Research
  • Capital Markets
  • Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy
  • Regulatory Affairs
  • Professional Development
  • Events
Economic Research
Photo of Mr. Robin Koepke

Mr. Robin Koepke

Senior Research Assistant
Global Macroeconomic Analysis

Bio

Robin Koepke is currently a Senior Research Assistant in the Global Macroeconomic Analysis department. He has primary responsibility for the IIF’s macroeconomic projections for the U.S. economy and contributes to the monthly Global Economic Monitor. In addition, Robin handles the Institute’s aggregate database for capital flows to emerging markets and is involved in the planning and production of the Capital Flows Report. He first came to the IIF in February 2009 as an intern in the Latin America department and joined the Institute’s staff in June 2010.

A native of Germany, Robin came to the U.S. in 2008 on a Hall of Nations scholarship to pursue his graduate studies at American University. Prior to this, he worked and studied in a variety of countries, including Mexico, Canada, France, Italy, and Austria.

Education

He holds a Master’s degree in International Economics from American University in Washington, DC, where he was awarded the prize for the university’s top graduate of 2010. His academic focus was on time series econometrics and open macroeconomics. His Bachelor’s degree is in International Business from the University of Passau in Germany.

Publications

  • May 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    May 18, 2012

    Tensions in the Euro Area are coming to the fore again forcefully after a relatively calm first quarter. Market sentiment has taken a turn for the worse, driven by election outcomes, renewed concerns about the health of the Spanish banking sector and discussions about Greece leaving the Euro Area. In general, these developments fit into our storyline that continued concern about the Euro Area crisis is keeping European growth moderate and volatile for the foreseeable future. However, while fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions will limit the upside for growth, each bout of risk aversion poses a test to the lower growth bound, notably now the scenario of a Greek exit from the monetary union.

    Read More

  • 2012 April U.S. Economic Forecast
    April 24, 2012

    Since early 2012, there has been a significant divergence between strong labor market data and weak spending data. This gap made it more difficult to gauge the underlying momentum in the economy. In recent weeks, this gap has begun to narrow. As envisioned in our forecast, expenditure data have been revised up and employment growth appears to have slowed somewhat. Our estimate for 2012Q1 GDP growth is thus unchanged at 2.5%, saar. For the rest of the year, better sentiment has prompted us to make minor upward revisions to our growth forecast. We now project a slight acceleration in Q2 and Q3 that would bring growth above the 2.5% q/q, saar, average of the prior three quarters. Towards the end of the year, we expect that fiscal policy concerns will again come to the fore.

    Read More

  • April 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    April 23, 2012

    Global financial markets took a turn for the worse going into the second quarter. A string of weaker than expected growth indicators coincided with renewed market risk aversion. Notably, Spanish government bond spreads rose back towards their highs from last autumn. This reflects concerns that we may be in for another round of broad market turbulence as the effects of the LTROs wear off. These developments support our forecast of continued moderate, but fragile global growth. The outlook also continues to be one of divergence—both between mature and emerging markets and among mature economies and, importantly, within the Euro Area.

    Read More

  • 2012 March U.S. Economic Forecast
    March 27, 2012

    In aggregate, U.S. economic data have surprised on the upside in recent months. The economy appears to be gathering some momentum and the chances of a virtuous cycle leading to sustained above-trend growth have increased. However, the picture is somewhat ambiguous as expenditure-based indicators actually point to some slowing in domestic demand. We forecast Q1 GDP growth of 2.5% q/q, saar. While we acknowledge the possibility that growth may disappoint again, we believe the key signal for the U.S. economic outlook comes from the consistent improvements in the labor market since December.

    Read More

  • March 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    March 26, 2012

    Global financial markets have been somewhat more upbeat in recent weeks. One explanation for this is that they are anticipating better times ahead, with the global economy poised to accelerate as we approach the third anniversary of the end of the last, severe, global recession. We would caution against outright optimism, however. Sizeable liquidity support from central banks may have taken out the near-term downside risk to the global economy, but a number of factors will combine to dampen the upside, leading to a growth outlook that is destined to remain in relatively tight ranges.

    Read More

  • 2012 February U.S. Economic Forecast
    February 21, 2012

    Recent U.S. labor market data have raised hopes that a more vigorous economic recovery may finally be taking hold. This is suggested by a healthy increase in payroll employment and continued falling jobless claims. In our view, the chances of a solid first quarter have increased, prompting us to raise our current quarter forecast to 3%, saar. However, we would caution against extrapolating too much of this strength to rest of the year. The forces that have held back the recovery thus far, including weak household balance sheets and an ailing housing sector, are likely to fade only gradually.

    Read More

  • February 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    February 17, 2012

    The global economy is in the middle of another soft patch, although recent performance has been mixed. Current weakness is centered on Europe, which looks to have entered a mild recession in 2011Q4. Orderly resolution of the Greek debt crisis remains a key challenge. Japan also contracted in Q4. By contrast, the U.S. economy has improved somewhat in recent months, and growth in the emerging world remains quite solid.

    Read More

See All Expert Publications