In recent years developments in many Sub-Saharan Africa economies have caught the attention of international investors who are looking for higher returns in emerging markets. The end of apartheid in South Africa sparked increased interest in the region initially and, since then, many countries have undertaken reforms backed by the IMF and World Bank prompting debt relief from the official community.
Growth has risen and the external position has improved in a number of countries over the past decade, although there has been a wide divergence in performance across the region. Before slowing to 2.1% in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis, growth for the region as a whole had averaged 6.5% in the five year period 2004-2008 while the combined current account had swung from a deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2003 to a surplus in each of the three years leading up to the global downturn. Resource-rich countries have attracted an increased inflow of foreign direct investment and there is a renewed focus on gaining access to international capital markets and developing local markets. Several countries besides South Africa now have a formal credit rating and have issued international bonds over the past few years, including Ghana, Gabon and Senegal. Others such as Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia are actively considering tapping the markets in the near future.
Many challenges remain, however, including improving governance, reducing poverty and unemployment, strengthening public financial management, and enhancing infrastructure. Addressing these issues will be key to raising living standards, moving to a higher growth path and attracting more foreign investment.
2012 Africa Financial Summit: Meeting in Review
The IIF held its inaugural Africa Financial Summit in Cape Town, South Africa on November 11-13, 2012. The meeting, which was graciously hosted by Standard Bank, attracted more than 120 participants from nearly 70 African and global institutions for two days of discussion of Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic and financial progress and prospects. The Meeting in Review summarizes the four keynote addresses and six panel discussions, and contains the agenda, the press release and photographs from the event.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing Strong, Challenges Ahead
The seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa covered by the IIF (accounting for 65% of the region’s economy) have averaged a robust 4.7% growth rate since 2007, demonstrating resilience in the global financial crisis. Future growth remains contingent on building diversified productive capacities with reduced dependence on natural resources. Investment in infrastructure, human capital, reform of government spending, and implementing deep, market-based reforms are key to high rates of sustainable, inclusive growth.
Sub-Saharan Africa Publications
Country Publications
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Tanzania: Dovish Central Bank Poised for Limited Easing
February 28, 2013Inflation has moderated due to easing food and energy prices, but is still above target. Core inflation remains sticky at around 8-9%. Activity is robust and growth of around 7% is likely in 2013. We do not see economic grounds for monetary policy easing this year. The central bank may nonetheless start cutting its discount rate in the second half.
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Zambia: Unlocking Potential for Higher, Inclusive Growth
February 15, 2013Despite high growth rates over the past decade, poverty, inequality and unemployment remain high. In order to achieve higher and more inclusive growth on a sustainable basis, Zambia needs to beef up its transportation and power infrastructure. The business environment also needs to be improved to facilitate the development of the formal private sector, while expanding agriculture would create employment and help reduce poverty.
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Nigeria: Striving To Unlock Its Economic Potential
February 14, 2013Despite Nigeria’s hydrocarbon wealth and robust growth over the past decade, unemployment is high, governance poor, and poverty widespread. Human development indicators also lag regional peers and per capita GDP is low compared with other oil exporting countries. To tackle these problems and to provide a springboard for more dynamic, private sector-led growth, infrastructure inadequacies (especially power and transport) need to be addressed and structural reforms implemented that would encourage more investment in the oil and gas sector and boost agricultural productivity.
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Zambia: The Challenges of Fiscal Expansion
January 29, 2013The new government has adopted a more expansionary fiscal stance, but the laudable objective of increasing investment spending relative to current expenditure will be hard to achieve due to capacity constraints. The increased reliance on nonconcessional financing reinforces the need for broad fiscal reforms to improve public spending’s “rate of return.”
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South Africa: In The Aftermath of The Mining Unrest
January 10, 2013The shooting deaths at the Marikana platinum mine last August grabbed international attention and raised questions about the progress made in addressing social and economic issues since the end of apartheid. The event will have a negative impact on the economy in the short-term, with a hit to growth and an increase in the current account deficit mainly confined to the second half of 2012. Over medium/long term, however, higher costs will hit mining profitability and may result in some shaft or mine closures and layoffs. The increase in wages is unlikely to put any significant pressure on inflation, and we do not expect it to be a major influence on monetary policy going forward.
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Zambia: Solid Growth, Positive Prospects
December 21, 2012Real GDP growth rose to a projected 7% in 2012 while inflation was contained below 7%. The current account slipped into a small deficit, mainly due to robust imports of capital goods but also reflecting weaker growth in copper exports. Future deficits should be comfortably financed by FDI. Financial sector reforms have been introduced, aimed at improving bank intermediation, but concerns linger that objectives may not be achieved.
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Ghana: Facing Exchange Market Pressures
November 16, 2012A combination of local (surge in imports, looser fiscal and monetary policies) and international factors (euro crisis-induced higher risk aversion) led to exchange market pressures in Ghana. A central bank defense was launched consisting of aggressive interest rate hikes, as well as micro and macroprudential measures. There has been a slight recovery in the exchange rate; however, currency pressures persist as Ghana faces the challenges posed by the classic trilemma.
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Regional Publications
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2012 Africa Financial Summit: Meeting in Review
February 04, 2013The IIF held its inaugural Africa Financial Summit in Cape Town, South Africa on November 11-13, 2012. The meeting, which was graciously hosted by Standard Bank, attracted more than 120 participants from nearly 70 African and global institutions for two days of discussion of Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic and financial progress and prospects. The Meeting in Review summarizes the four keynote addresses and six panel discussions, and contains the agenda, the press release and photographs from the event.
Read More -
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing Strong, Challenges Ahead
November 06, 2012The seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa covered by the IIF (accounting for 65% of the region’s economy) have averaged a robust 4.7% growth rate since 2007, demonstrating resilience in the global financial crisis. Future growth remains contingent on building diversified productive capacities with reduced dependence on natural resources. Investment in infrastructure, human capital, reform of government spending, and implementing deep, market-based reforms are key to high rates of sustainable, inclusive growth.
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