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Economic Research

M. Emre Tiftik

Research Assistant
Global Macroeconomic Analysis

Bio

Mehmet Emre Tiftik is a research assistant at the Global Macroeconomics Analysis Department. His major fields of study are international economics and finance with particular interests in G7 and Emerging Europe. Prior to joining the IIF in 2011, Mr. Tiftik served as an instructor and teaching assistant at the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD). From 2005 to 2008, he worked as a research assistant at the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Turkey. Prior to that, he served as a junior research analyst in the Ministry of Labour and Social Security of Turkey where he participated in the evaluation of grant projects under the Delegation of European Union to Turkey.

Mr. Tiftik has received numerous academic honors and awards including the Middle East Economic Association’s Ibn Khaldun Prize (2009), University of Maryland’s Graduate Fellowship (2008), and the Turkish Economic Association’s Research Price (2006).

Education

Mr. Tiftik completed his Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics and a Master’s degree in Financial Mathematics at METU. He also holds two Master’s degrees in Economics- one from METU with a focus on applied econometrics and the other from UMD with a concentration in quantitative macroeconomic modeling.

Publications

  • May 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    May 18, 2012

    Tensions in the Euro Area are coming to the fore again forcefully after a relatively calm first quarter. Market sentiment has taken a turn for the worse, driven by election outcomes, renewed concerns about the health of the Spanish banking sector and discussions about Greece leaving the Euro Area. In general, these developments fit into our storyline that continued concern about the Euro Area crisis is keeping European growth moderate and volatile for the foreseeable future. However, while fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions will limit the upside for growth, each bout of risk aversion poses a test to the lower growth bound, notably now the scenario of a Greek exit from the monetary union.

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  • 2012 April Japan Economic Forecast
    April 24, 2012

    The latest data releases have prompted us to revise up Japan’s Q1 GDP estimate to 3.5%q/q saar, mainly on the stronger than expected net export volumes and auto sales. Additionally, businesses became notably more upbeat toward the end of 2012Q1. The manufacturing PMI increased to 51.1 in March, its highest level since August 2011. The services PMI continued also to rise. Encouragingly, core domestic private machinery orders rose for the second consecutive month in February, somewhat easing the concerns over business investment resulting from the Q1 BoJ Tankan survey results.

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  • April 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    April 23, 2012

    Global financial markets took a turn for the worse going into the second quarter. A string of weaker than expected growth indicators coincided with renewed market risk aversion. Notably, Spanish government bond spreads rose back towards their highs from last autumn. This reflects concerns that we may be in for another round of broad market turbulence as the effects of the LTROs wear off. These developments support our forecast of continued moderate, but fragile global growth. The outlook also continues to be one of divergence—both between mature and emerging markets and among mature economies and, importantly, within the Euro Area.

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  • Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey - 2012Q1
    April 09, 2012

    The IIF index of emerging market bank lending conditions (EMLC) remained below 50 (implying an overall deterioration) for the third consecutive quarter. That said, however, the global EMLC index recovered most of the previous quarter’s drop, rising 48.6, from 44.7 in 2011Q4 and 49.1 in 2011Q3. This change was mainly the result of funding conditions, which tightened somewhat further in 2012Q1, but by nowhere near the amount recorded in 2011Q4. This highlights the fact that policy measures taken by central banks in both emerging and, especially, in mature economies in recent months (especially by the ECB) have helped stem the deterioration.

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  • 2012 March Japan Economic Forecast
    March 27, 2012

    The pessimistic mood that was evident in Japan earlier in the year has given way to optimism, reflecting the success of the BoJ’s more accommodative policy stance. In particular, the positive effect of the BoJ’s new stimulus program has been quite pronounced in the stock market. The Nikkei 225 index has risen by 11% over the past five weeks. In addition, the yen has depreciated 5.4% against the U.S. dollar since February 14, when the BoJ surprised markets by enlarging the size of its asset purchase program and setting a 1% inflation target. Most encouragingly, this move seems to have been successful in shaping the inflation expectations of market participants. The five-year breakeven rate, a measure of long-run inflation expectations has turned positive.

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  • March 2012 Global Economic Monitor
    March 26, 2012

    Global financial markets have been somewhat more upbeat in recent weeks. One explanation for this is that they are anticipating better times ahead, with the global economy poised to accelerate as we approach the third anniversary of the end of the last, severe, global recession. We would caution against outright optimism, however. Sizeable liquidity support from central banks may have taken out the near-term downside risk to the global economy, but a number of factors will combine to dampen the upside, leading to a growth outlook that is destined to remain in relatively tight ranges.

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  • 2012 February Japan Economic Forecast
    February 21, 2012

    The release of Q4 GDP data revealed that the Japanese economy shrank more than expected by 2.3%q/q, saar in Q4, reflecting a sharp decline in inventories and a large drag from the external sector. Inventory rebuilding and the delayed public reconstruction spending should boost domestic demand in the near term. We also expect exports to rebound significantly once the supply chain disruptions from Thailand are resolved. Thus, it is most likely that Japan will resume its path of moderate economic growth in 2012. However, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook is substantial. With foreign demand remaining lackluster amid unsettled global financial tensions, we now project the economy to grow around 1.7% this year.

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