Emerging Market Growth Picking Up Modestly in Q4

December 09, 2014

Washington, D.C., December 9, 2014 - Emerging market growth is expected to reach 3.9 percent for Q4, slightly higher than the estimated 3.7 percent for Q3 according to the latest update of the IIF's EM Coincident Indicator.

Despite this moderate acceleration, the IIF noted that emerging market GDP growth remains well below the average 4.5 percent registered during the 2012-2013 period.

"While lower oil prices create winners and losers across emerging markets, aggregate EM growth remains muted at the end of the year," said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. "Performance is better than in the first half of 2014, but unimpressive and uneven when compared to earlier years."

Business sentiment continued to improve in November, while financial market variables weakened and hard data softened.'

Financial market data broadly weakened, in particular commodity prices. Further weakness in the current month suggests caution about emerging market growth going forward.

The EMCI is a monthly indicator that gauges quarterly emerging market GDP growth on a real time basis. The EMCI distills a common trend from 41 macroeconomic and financial variables that are highly correlated with emerging market GDP growth. It is published in the second week of each month and its growth rate is designed to match quarterly annualized GDP growth in the respective quarter.

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The Institute of International Finance is the global association of the financial industry, with close to 500 members from 70 countries. Its mission is to support the financial industry in the prudent management of risks; to develop sound industry practices; and to advocate for regulatory, financial and economic policies that are in the broad interests of its members and foster global financial stability and sustainable economic growth. IIF members include commercial and investment banks, asset managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, central banks and development banks. For more information visit www.iif.com.'

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