Washington, D.C., July 8, 2015 - Emerging market GDP growth picked up in Q2 after its multi-year lows in the previous two quarters, according to the latest update of the IIF's EM Coincident Indicator. ' The EMCI rose to 2.7 percent in June, up by 0.5pp relative to May and 0.7pp relative to March. This increased momentum is broad-based across regions, but most notably in EMEA and LATAM.'
"It is particularly encouraging that EM trade data continued to show signs of a turnaround this quarter, following a prolonged period of weakness since last autumn," said Kristina Morkunaite, lead author of the report. "This turnaround suggests that stronger growth in advanced economies is now exerting more pull, raising hopes that EM weakness has run its course and activity will continue to gain momentum in 2015H2.
The EMCI extracts a common trend out of 41 macroeconomic and financial variables to estimate emerging market GDP growth on a monthly basis. The rebound in June was driven by improvements in trade and financial market variables.' Sentiment indicators softened slightly and industrial production remained sluggish.
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