Emerging Market Growth Slows in 2014Q4

January 13, 2015

Washington, D.C., January 13, 2015 - Emerging market GDP growth slowed to an estimated 3.6 percent for Q4 in 2014 according to the December update of the IIF's EM Coincident Indicator. The IIF estimated Q3 growth at 4.1 percent.

"Following a modest acceleration in Q2 and Q3, aggregate EM growth retreated toward the end of the year. Emerging markets have not yet shown much benefit from the recent strong growth in the U.S. or the sharp drop in oil prices," said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the IIF. "In fact, further falls in commodity prices over recent weeks suggest continued EM slowdown as we move into January."

All three components of the EMCI showed signs of slowing activity. Financial market data continued a broad-based downward trend over the past several months. Business sentiment retreated in aggregate in December, although there were some bright spots. PMI readings were up for Brazil, India, and Korea with new export orders in China. Among hard data, merchandise trade figures were generally soft although overall industrial production edged slightly up, as declines in the ASEAN region were offset by small gains in Emerging Europe.

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The Institute of International Finance is the global association of the financial industry, with close to 500 members from 70 countries. Its mission is to support the financial industry in the prudent management of risks; to develop sound industry practices; and to advocate for regulatory, financial and economic policies that are in the broad interests of its members and foster global financial stability and sustainable economic growth. IIF members include commercial and investment banks, asset managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, central banks and development banks. For more information visit www.iif.com.'

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