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Global Macro Views

Global Macro Views is a flagship weekly report that provides cross-country analysis on key market and policy developments. The GMV's complement the existing IIF product line-up, including country reports and data.  The first GMV was published in June 2017.

EM Vulnerability

Recent EM Vulnerability Work

EM Vulnerability

May 9, 2024
We provide a historical overview of the evolution of global trade. And highlight the increased importance of EMs in the supply chain. Shifts toward re...
EM Vulnerability

April 25, 2024
We review some of the main macro and market themes at the spring meetings. While de-globalization and political risk have been the center of discussio...
EM Vulnerability

March 21, 2024
The US has seen an important increase in labor productivity … … attributed to technological innovation, supportive fiscal policies and labor flexibil...
EM Vulnerability

September 7, 2023
Since last month’s primary vote, Argentina is debating dollarization, … which – on a spectrum – is really just an extreme version of a Dollar peg. R...
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EM Flows

Recent EM Flows Work

Capital Flows, EM Flows

June 22, 2023
Elevated tensions between the US and China are raising lots of questions. Markets are focused on how much de-globalization and de-risking this is cau...
EM Flows

August 11, 2022
Monetary policy operates with long lags, … as it takes time for tighter financial conditions, … to feed through into weaker growth and lower inflati...
EM Flows

July 28, 2022
In the first months after Russia invaded Ukraine, … the Dollar was relatively stable against emerging markets, … as rising commodity prices split em...
EM Flows

July 21, 2022
When Russia first invaded Ukraine back in late February, … the boost in commodity prices helped many emerging markets, …  many of whom – especially ...
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EM Positioning

Recent EM Positioning Work

EM Positioning

May 18, 2023
Prior to COVID, we flagged persistent and large periphery output gaps, … with periphery inflation running systematically below that in Germany, … in...
EM Positioning

August 4, 2022
Markets greeted last week’s Fed meeting with relief, … because the Fed signaled that it is now closer to “neutral,” … with markets inferring less ur...
EM Positioning

November 18, 2021
Last week we summarized some policy lessons from COVID, … focusing on the extraordinary amount of fiscal stimulus in the US. We concluded with a c...
EM Positioning

October 22, 2020
China’s big 2009 stimulus was a major boost for EM, … because it lifted commodity prices and the terms of trade. There is no similar China stimulu...
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Phillips Curve

Recent Phillips Curve Work

Japan, Phillips Curve

April 4, 2024
The BoJ has recently concluded its extensive monetary easing initiatives … … which is a significant milestone and initiates a path back to orthodoxy....
Phillips Curve

April 13, 2023
Russia in 2022 had a large “excess” current account surplus, … reflected in abundant domestic liquidity and resilient growth. Counterpart to this wa...
Phillips Curve

April 6, 2023
Markets have been focused on US bank deposit outflows, … fearing that such outflows could translate into weak lending.  The good news is there is li...
Phillips Curve

March 23, 2023
Recent events have caused markets to raise their US recession odds. Markets often overreact to shocks and it’s possible they’re doing that now. To p...
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