Selected Category- EM Vulnerability

Global Macro Views: The ECB and Periphery Spread Control

The ECB has clearly signaled normalization of monetary policy, … even as periphery sovereign bond spreads keep widening out steadily. Rate ...

Global Macro Views: Global Recession Risk and Capital Flows

We yesterday published our updated Capital Flows Report, … laying out our latest global growth and capital flows forecasts. Risk is buildin...

Global Macro Views: Global Recession Risk and Monetary Policy

Our forecasts show the global economy teetering on the brink of recession, … as war in Ukraine, COVID lockdowns in China and a hawkish Fed we...

Global Macro Views: Rising Global Recession Risk

We switched to forecasting a Euro zone recession two months ago, … given rising odds of adverse spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Uk...

Global Macro Views: Take-Aways from the Spring Meetings

We summarize our take-aways from last week’s meetings. Obviously, on the surface, most discussions were about the war, … the effectiv...

Global Macro Views: What Russia’s Current Account Surplus Means

Western sanctions on Russia represent a compromise. If all of Russia’s financial institutions had been sanctioned, … that’d mak...

Global Macro Views: FX Fair Values Amid Russia's War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending markets. Rising commodity prices are buoying Latin America, … while commodity importers like...

Global Macro Views: Russia’s Current Account Surplus

We examine some of the main drivers of Russia’s current account surplus. Since Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago, global oil prices have rise...

Global Macro Views: A Realignment in Global Capital Flows

Something very unusual is happening in global capital flows to EM. China is seeing large outflows in our high-frequency tracking of daily flows, &he...

Global Macro Views: Market Pricing versus War in Ukraine

The range of potential outcomes in Ukraine is massive, … going from a near-term peace deal to a multi-year conflict. We contrast the range ...

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