Selected Category- EM FX Fair Value

Global Macro Views: The Fall in China’s RMB

China’s RMB has fallen sharply against the Dollar recently, … with many flagging parallels with the “step” devaluation in 2...

Global Macro Views: Exchange Rate Misalignments in 2022

January 13, 2022

This Global Macro Views publishes our FX misalignment estimates for 2022, … which incorporate our latest macroeconomic and balance of payment...

Global Macro Views: In Defense of Currency Devaluations

October 21, 2021

Large currency devaluations have a decidedly bad name, … because they tend to be associated with chaos and disruption, … even as the...

Global Macro Views: A Sharp Turn in Dollar Sentiment

One year ago, markets were questioning Dollar reserve currency status, … given large budget deficits that were being materially financed by F...

Global Macro Views: Fair Value of the Brazilian Real

We have been vocal about our Brazilian Real fair value, … which has signaled substantial undervaluation since mid-2020. That undervaluation...

Global Macro Views: FX Misalignments in 2021

We have been in the process of updating our FX valuation model. This Global Macro Views publishes our misalignment estimates for 2021. The biggest...

Global Macro Views: Updating our EM FX Fair Values

February 25, 2021

Last week we began the process of updating our EM FX fair values, … with a discussion of material balance of payments rebalancing in Turkey. ...

GMV: Updating our Exchange Rate Fair Values

November 19, 2020

The Dollar is substantially overvalued against emerging markets. We look at EM as two very distinct blocks: China and everybody else. Our long-sta...

GMV: The Drivers of our Turkish Lira Fair Value

August 13, 2020

We have been getting many questions on our Turkish Lira fair value. Many assume our fair value estimate will automatically keep weakening. That is...

GMV: Is the Dollar Entering a Secular Decline?

Markets are debating whether the Dollar is entering a secular decline. We provide an overview of the main drivers of the Dollar in recent years. T...

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