The focus of this Staff Paper is on how new ECL standards work, how they introduce procyclicality under deteriorating credit conditions, and what actions and guidance regulators and accounting standard-setting bodies have issued to help avoid excessive procyclicality in the current crisis.
Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a special two-part episode, IIF Executive Vice President of Research and Policy, Clay Lowery, joins host Dylan Riddle to discuss the outcome of the G20 extraordinary virtual leadership summit. Later in the episode, Deputy Chief Economist Elina Ribakova reflects on South Africa's recent downgrade and outlines what is next for the key emerging market.
COVID-19 sends equity valuations plummeting worldwide: the U.S. cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (price to average long-term real earnings) is just below its long-term average, while Germany, France and EMs CAPEs are already near historic lows.
In this special edition of the Global Regulatory Update, Andres Portilla, Managing Director and Head of Regulatory Affairs, discusses with Bill Coen, former Secretary General of the Basel Committee and Chairman of the IFRS Advisory Council, the global regulatory and policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.
The April U.S. Regulatory Update covers U.S. regulators’ responses to COVID-19, the CARES Act, the recent FSOC meeting, the Fed’s stress capital buffer and CCAR announcements, and more.
Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits.
Global household debt tops $47 trillion—over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis; More than three-fourths of the 75 countries in our sample now have higher household debt-to-GDP ratios than in 2007.
Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, and Sergi Lanau, Deputy Chief Economist, tackle their global and regional growth forecasts in six questions.
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal Government have begun to implement a series of policy measures to address the economic and financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two grids in this document break out the recent policy responses.
We see the global economy in recession this year, as low oil and financial stress add to the Covid shock. The shock hits EM after years of already subpar growth. We project recessions everywhere in Latin America, and the lowest EM Asia growth since the 1997-98 crisis.
This is a supplement to the IIF-Deloitte series, Realizing The Digital Promise, and captures some of the topical insights shared: both in success stories with the deployment of new technological solutions, and also in some of the cultural adaptation challenges, where some aspects of the current predicament may present a microcosm of the digital transformation journey.
The IIF outlines 5 key policy tools that international economic policymakers should be striving to use, now. No one action can turn the tide against COVID-19, but international coordination will prove crucial to limiting the damage.
Aggressive fiscal stimulus prompts an abrupt rise in sovereign bond yields—and a renewed focus on debt dynamics; Corporate bond funds see sharp outflows of $34bn over the past month, vs. average monthly inflows of $14bn in 2018-19; Amid growing risks for the banking sector, exposure to the energy sector looks relatively limited; The safe-haven rush to USD is a major refinancing risk for EM corporates and sovereigns that rely heavily on FX funding
Executive Vice President of Research and Policy, Clay Lowery, answers six big questions about the potential tools available to policymakers combating the economic and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The IIF and undersigned associations submitted a joint letter emphasizing the importance of keeping the U.S. financial markets open during this extraordinary time of the COVID-19 health crisis.
The focus of this IIF Staff Paper, “Managing Through the COVID-19 Pandemic: How Financial Firms are Responding,” is how the financial services industry has been responding to date to the pandemic with an emphasis on the role of business continuity plans - including measure for possible pandemics.
The March edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.
COVID-19 fears prompt sharp downgrades to corporate earnings estimates; growing risk of fallen angels and fire sales; Signs of stress in corporate funding markets, rising liquidity risk for oil and gas, utilities and across high-yield markets; Biggest vulnerabilities: small and medium sized firms, BBB-rated corporates and EM firms with heavy reliance on FX debt
Hong Kong’s economy took a hit last year due to social unrest and trade tensions. Falling consumption, investment and foreign trade dragged its economy into recession. However, Hong Kong’s financial industry has proven resilient. The COVID-19 shock raises growth and other risks going forward.