Entries for 'China'

The direct impact of the war in Ukraine on China's economy is minor due to the relative sizes of these economies. However, the indirect impact of global consumer and investor confidence can be profound and complicated. We expect the war to reduce China's GDP growth by 0.2 points.

China’s 2022 budget seems rather tepid with a narrower fiscal deficit and flat new debt. Once the deficit in the government fund account and special transfers are considered, the consolidated fiscal deficit could reach 8.1% of GDP in 2022, lending strong support to economic recovery.

China's local government (LG) bonds have ballooned since 2018 as LGs were given ever greater bond quotas to finance deficit spending. The recent real estate slump exacerbated the risks as local governments depend heavily on land revenues. LGs are increasingly reliant on CG-LG transfers.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a number of severe sanctions. China, an important partner, has maintained a deliberately neutral stance. While Russia-China trade is important, financial links remain minimal. China could mitigate Russia’s loss of access to global payment systems. Furthermore, with 40% of reserves frozen, holdings in China are critical. The Bank of Russia (CBR) may need to get creative with FX interventions.

China’s economy slowed down markedly in 2H2021 due to energy shortages, tougher regulations, and a housing slump. Though policies are turning more supportive of growth, the outlook for 2022 is still highly uncertain. We expect China’s GDP to grow about 5% in 2022.

Despite having over $2 tln of net foreign assets per IIP, China runs over $100 bln investment losses a year. This China Spotlight looks at the reasons behind this. China earned a reasonable return on its foreign assets but paid a hefty cost for its foreign liabilities.

This note explains the interest rate tools at PBoC’s disposal and China’s interest rate transmission mechanism.

China’s latest census revealed an alarming deceleration in population growth. The birth rate in 2021 fell to a 72-year record low. The rapidly aging population is having a profound impact on savings, investment, and economic growth. This note looks into China's demographic challenge.

Beijing took a series of bold regulatory and economic policies in 2021. Though good for long-term sustainability, the intensity of these policies is hurting near-term growth. Better communication and some policy easing can relieve the near-term pains.

2021 was a tumultuous year for China’s economy, which was disrupted by the housing slump, energy shortage, and regulatory storms. We expect policies will be significantly more pro-growth in 2022.

Once a key driver of China's economic growth, real estate is now seen by many as a cancer of the economy. Real estate and construction together account for 14.5% of China's GDP and 20% of employment. This note examines the role of real estate, particularly housing, in China's economy. 

China’s total foreign assets doubled in the past 11 years to $9 tln by mid-2021. However, considering the size of China’s GDP and the investments in its own assets in HK, China’s financial integration with the world still has a long way to go. 

The result of higher oil prices is a shift in purchasing power from oil consumers to producers. Oil exporters are getting a boost to their terms of trade, leading to wider CA and fiscal surpluses. Higher energy prices will hurt several EMDEs that remain heavily dependent on petroleum imports.

China's recent electricity shortage was to some degree caused by rising power demand, but mostly due to the constraints imposed by the energy intensity target and coal supply. 

The recent financial distresses among Chinese property developers are inevitable given the excessive leverage and tightening real estate policies. Careful resolution of developer debts is needed to ring fence risks while minimize moral hazards. 

China's post-Covid stimulus was more restrained than after the great financial crisis (GFC) even though the Covid shock was about twice that by GFC in terms of the damage to GDP growth.

We expect consumption and manufacturing investment to pick up in 2H and support the recovery process, while the tailwinds of exports and real estate will taper off in 2H. We expect China’s GDP to grow by 5.4% and 8.6% y/y in 2H and the whole year 2021, respectively. 

Domestic consumption lagged export growth in China’s post-COVID-19 recovery. This is in part because stimulus policies have targeted businesses instead of households. Surging household debt, uneven income and wealth distribution across China have tamped down consumption rates.