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Entries for 'Ukraine'

June 12, 2019

We have estimated Ukraine’s financing gap at $2 bn (1.5% of GDP). A key ingredient is a stable current account despite growth recovery. This is due to a favorable shift in the current account toward the EU. Domestic politics aside, a key risk is the growth slowdown in Europe.

May 15, 2019

We do a balance of payments forecast to assess the funding gap for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a follow-up IMF program of $2 bn under benign assumptions. Political impasse is a key risk due to parliamentary elections in October.

May 18, 2018
IMF assistance has helped stabilize the economy after a difficult period. The external financing picture remains weak and will strain reserves. A new

November 9, 2017
Worsening external balance will reduce 2017 rea

July 25, 2017
The fiscal deficit that narrowed to 2.2% of GDP last year is likely to widen to 2.9% this year, as the government increases pensions and spending on d

July 12, 2017
Prodded by the IMF and domestic reform activists, the government has implemented several important reform steps and submitted a pension reform plan to

June 30, 2017
Headline inflation remains well above the 8'±2% target, thanks mainly to the recent hikes in utility prices.' Stepped up foreign demand suggests stron

March 30, 2017
A recent acceleration of growth is threatened by the blockade of the occupied territory in eastern Ukraine and by halting implementation of the IMF pr

December 20, 2016
The country's largest bank was nationalized on Sunday, December 18.' PrivatBank, owned by the oligarch and former Dnipro governor Ihor Kolomoisky, con

December 14, 2016
Real GDP growth remains weak, averaging 1% so far this year. Worryingly, growth momentum has rotated to private consumption in the third quarter, with

November 30, 2016
The economy is slowly recovering on the back of growth in consumption and stabilizing inflation. Increasing consumption and lackluster export growth h

June 20, 2016
The IMF is likely to finally disburse the third tranche of its program in July or August, almost a year later t

April 27, 2016
Our recent trip to Ukraine coincided with the arrival of a new government. After four months of negotiations, the ruling coalition holds a very slim m

February 4, 2016
Ukraine's economic reforms, anchored by the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, stalled in late 2015 despite the recession moderating during the

January 7, 2016

1.' Markets fasten seatbelts: '  The relative calm that prevailed just after Fed liftoff has abruptly dissipated as China's market t

October 21, 2015
The government of Ukraine has reached agreement with private creditors to restructure about $15 billion of the outstanding $18 billion of Ukraine's ex

July 8, 2015
After sinking 6% in a single quarter of 2015Q1, the Ukrainian economy has probably bottomed out in the second quarter with real GDP 20% below its peak

February 18, 2015
We visited Kiev last week, consulting with public sector officials and market participants on the current state of Ukraine's economy as well as the re

February 12, 2015
The first Eurogroup meeting with Greece's FM Varoufakis, on February 11, ended in the early morning-as usual-but without a joint statement as " mini

January 23, 2015
The government has asked the IMF for a new and longer EFF arrangement that would help avoid a complete financial meltdown. To work, the new program wo
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