Entries for 'Mature Economies'
November 28, 2017
Red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs boom. But the divide between red and blue states goes deeper than just job creation. We develop
November 21, 2017
We have shown that red states are falling behind blue states in the jobs recovery. We examine three possible drivers: (i) demographics; (ii) opioids;
November 16, 2017
We compare the US labor force participation rate to other G10 economies. The decline in the US participation rate is a clear outlier, especially wh
November 15, 2017
Red states are falling behind blue states in the labor market recovery, a phenomenon we documented in a Global Macro Views earlier this week. We fo
November 13, 2017
Red states are not benefitting the same as blue states from jobs growth, with the nature of th
November 3, 2017
The October labor market data on balance were a hawkish signal for the Fed, because the most dovish component - the drop in average hourly earnings gr
October 16, 2017
Congress and the Administration have pivoted to tax reform; many obstacles are in the way We think it's unlikely the President will sign comprehensiv
October 5, 2017
In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo
September 15, 2017
We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process
September 11, 2017
We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist
September 7, 2017
We look more closely at the recent pick up in core inflation, and find that much of it can be explained by just three sectors, all related to tourism.
September 5, 2017
We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -
August 15, 2017
The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade
August 14, 2017
We provide some background for the discussion on taxing foreign held income. We document the size and nature of reinvested earnings that US-based firm
August 8, 2017
Since our initial piece, the participation rate has drifted up, a trend that - should it continue - would tend to slow further declines in the unemplo
August 4, 2017
Our latest US Financial Regulatory Update, with key highlights from recent Congressional testimony by the heads and nominees of the lead US regulatory
August 1, 2017
We start to examine why average hourly earnings growth is so low. We show that the degree of dispersion in wage growth across sectors has risen, even
July 17, 2017
Markets seemed to move last week based on President Trump's July 12th statement that his Administration would impose tariffs or quotas on steel. ' As
July 13, 2017
We examine the decline in core PCE inflation, looking at individual components within the inflation basket. We find that the decline can be accounted
June 29, 2017
We examine the labor market "churn" and perform a sensitivity analysis on the US unemployment rate. Factoring in some slowing in hiring and a gradual