Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'
April 6, 2023
MENAP non-oil countries are facing unprecedented challenges. We expect growth to slow sharply, and the current account and fiscal deficits to remain large.
April 4, 2023
CCA countries have successfully managed to avoid any negative spillovers from Russian sanctions. Higher remittances and energy prices led to strong growth. However, risks of secondary sanctions remain, as Western officials begin to clamp down on countries potentially aiding sanction evasion.
March 20, 2023
Authorities’ reluctance to implement the needed reforms has aggravated Tunisia’s preexisting debt problems. In the absence of an IMF program, persistent fiscal and balance of payments financing shortfalls will jeopardize macroeconomic stability.
February 13, 2023
In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region, Garbis Iradian. The discussio...
February 1, 2023
Although vulnerabilities have increased, Egypt’s challenges are not insurmountable. The government’s ambitious and comprehensive program with the IMF could bring fundamental policy changes, transforming Egypt into a more open, market-oriented, economy.
December 14, 2022
Overall growth is set to decelerate, dragged down by stagnant oil production while non-oil real GDP growth will remain robust. The current account and fiscal surpluses will narrow in 2023 due to moderation in oil prices. The authorities have made significant progress in implementing crucial reforms.
November 16, 2022
The short-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, supported by elevated oil prices. Structural reforms are needed to help diversify the economy.
October 31, 2022
Investor sentiment towards oil exporters in the region will remain favorable due to elevated energy prices. Total capital inflows will remain modest in 2023, as sovereigns’ issue less debt due to continued fiscal surpluses. FDI will become the main conduit for nonresident capital inflows.
October 9, 2022
Growth in the nine MENA oil exporters will accelerate. The impact of tighter global financial conditions is expected to be limited. The combined current account and fiscal balances will remain in large surpluses. Risks to the outlook are well contained given the ample public foreign assets.
August 29, 2022
Potential IMF financial support would help meet the large financing needs and strengthen confidence in the economy more broadly.
July 21, 2022
Prolonged inaction by the authorities has worsened economic conditions and deepened the financial crisis.
July 1, 2022
Schedule for the IIF's 2022 virtual investor trips released.
June 29, 2022
The impact of U.S. interest rate increases on the GCC will be limited in an environment of high oil prices.
June 20, 2022
The country has been in political paralysis without a new government and president since October 2021. We expect growth to accelerate to around 9% in 2022 supported by higher oil prices and production.
April 26, 2022
Growth will accelerate to 5.9% in 2022 supported by higher oil production and prices. The combined current account surplus is poised to surge to 16% of GDP and the fiscal surplus to 7% of GDP. Inflationary pressures remain relatively modest.
April 20, 2022
Subdued tourism revenue, higher food prices, and tighter global financial conditions have increased vulnerability of the Egyptian economy. Monetary tightening, exchange rate flexibility, financial support from the GCC, and an increase in natural gas exports will help to mitigate the external shock.
April 11, 2022
The authorities and the IMF have reached a staff-level agreement on a comprehensive economic program. Approval by the IMF Executive Board is contingent a series of prior actions. The program is based on two pillars–-a unified market-determined exchange rate and a confidence-inspiring banking system.
April 11, 2022
Political tensions and major structural challenges combined with the war in Ukraine have exacerbated economic vulnerabilities. Current and fiscal deficits and high public debt pose significant financial risks. An IMF program is needed to close the financing gap and restore macroeconomic stability.
April 5, 2022
The sanctions and the contraction of the Russian economy will have adverse economic spillovers to the CCA. The degree of the effect on each country will depend on its exposure to Russia. Elevated inflation is expected to persist with ongoing supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices.
March 28, 2022
The war has increased downside risks to growth, raised inflationary pressure, and would lead to wider current account and fiscal deficits. Worsening external financing conditions have encouraged capital outflows and raised the financing needs.