Entries for 'Phillips Curve'
July 15, 2021
The Euro zone often gets cast as a debt crisis, …
but it is really about differentials in competitiveness, …
with Euro periphery real exchange rat...
April 29, 2021
COVID-19 caused substantial disruption to labor markets.
We survey prime-age employment ratios across key economies.
Negative labor market fallout...
October 1, 2020
The COVID-19 shock means output gaps are substantial everywhere.
As a result, all major economies are struggling to reflate simultaneously.
Last w...
September 24, 2020
Recent ECB comments on the Euro sparked consternation, ...
and have been likened to verbal intervention at a difficult time.
The reality is that “...
September 17, 2020
The Bank of Japan adopted Yield Curve Control (YCC) in September 2016.
At the time, YCC was something of a “Hail Mary” to get reflation back on trac...
September 3, 2020
The Fed’s recent shift to average inflation targeting, ...
and the related de-emphasis of NAIRU and output gaps, ...
are a material step forward f...
July 30, 2020
The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, ...
something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.”
Risi...
June 25, 2020
Unlike previous recessions, the COVID-19 shock hit services employment especially hard.
Many jobs that have been lost are in services like retail, e...
June 11, 2020
Last week brought a surprise drop in the unemployment rate, …
but sadly the outlook is for a slow and painful labor market recovery.
Unlike previo...
February 13, 2020
Labor markets have registered substantial recoveries in recent years, ...
but the headline numbers are flattered by rising female participation rate...
January 16, 2020
The US unemployment rate has fallen to historically low levels, ...
even as there is little indication that underlying inflation is picking up.
T...
September 12, 2019
Job losses in the retail sector have been a persistent feature of the US labor market.
This downsizing has so far only offset falling market share o...
January 16, 2019
Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.
October 11, 2018
Waiting for higher wage inflation has been like watching paint dry. That is about to change with October data on average hourly earnings. A large base
July 12, 2018
Many emerging markets have sold off sharply this year, and a hawkish shift from the Fed could add fuel to the fire. We examine Fed policy through t
July 10, 2018
Why has there not been a more pronounced rise in inflation, "¦ given that standard indicators of slack point to a tight economy? One possibility is th
April 4, 2018
Market pricing remains far below the "dots" in 2019 and 2020, reflecting in part a perception that the Fed is a dovish institution. We examine past
March 26, 2018
The mapping from wider fiscal deficits to the current account has been imperfect, reflecting offsetting moves in other sectors of the economy and a
March 13, 2018
One month ago, average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, sparking anxiety that the US economy may - finally - be starting to overheat. We ar
March 8, 2018
Last year we published a series of reports on red versus blue states, "¦ which showed that red state labor markets are materially lagging blue ones. W