Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'

Key senior government officials, representatives from IFIs, and private sector experts will discuss the unprecedented and difficult nature of the Lebanese economic and financial crisis.

Russia’s strategy of interrupting oil and gas flows for political gain will encourage Europe to find alternative energy suppliers. In the near term, alternative supplies to Russian gas are limited. In the medium-term, the U.S., Qatar, and Australia may overtake Russia as the primary gas providers.

Growth will moderate in 2022 and inflationary pressures could start to ease in 2022H2 as global food inflation moderates and central banks in the region maintain their tight policy stance. Higher energy prices will improve the external and fiscal balances in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

Investor sentiment towards the GCC region will improve further due to higher oil prices. Government-Related Entities (GREs) and the financial sector are expected to slightly increase their debt issuance. The pace of ESG issuance is accelerating.

Uzbekistan coped well with the pandemic. Growth will remain around 6% in 2022, inflation is declining, the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow gradually, and the public debt will remain modest. 

High oil prices since end-2020 are largely driven by pervasive supply shortages from the lack of adequate investment. Current futures contracts point to Brent average oil prices of $73/bbl and $69/bbl in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

Inflation is rising due to higher food and energy prices, deglobalization, and supply chain disruptions. In addition, the recent increases in global CPI stem from widespread monetary easing and expansionary fiscal policy. Inflation may exceed central bank targets through 2022 and into 2023. 

The result of higher oil prices is a shift in purchasing power from oil consumers to producers. Oil exporters are getting a boost to their terms of trade, leading to wider CA and fiscal surpluses. Higher energy prices will hurt several EMDEs that remain heavily dependent on petroleum imports.

The MENA region has weathered the economic storm from the health crisis. The economic recovery continues to gain momentum. Higher energy prices will improve the fiscal and current account positions in oil exporters. In oil importers, deficits, government debt, and unemployment will remain high. 

The pandemic combined with the current political paralysis have exacerbated vulnerabilities in the economy. Tunisian policymakers face difficult choices in stimulating growth while reducing macroeconomic imbalances. 

The IMF and World Bank approved Sudan’s eligibility for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative in recognition of the significant reforms implemented by authorities. We expect growth to pick up and fiscal and external imbalances to reduce as the country reintegrates into the international community.

We expect a 50% chance that the new cabinet will carry out the reforms needed to achieve macroeconomic stability and arrest further deterioration, which would lead to an agreement with the IMF and unlock financial support from the international community.

Higher oil prices will lead to modest growth, shift the CA to a surplus, and narrow the fiscal deficit. The resurgence of COVID-19 has set the recovery back, but progress on vaccination has improved resiliency. Key reforms to reduce oil dependency and promote private sector growth are needed. 

While the election of Ebrahim Raisi as the new president will not derail the nuclear negotiations, the U.S. may not be able to extract concessions on critical issues. The likely outcome for the JCPOA negotiations is a return to the 2015 agreement, which would keep many sanctions in place. 

The vaccine program and higher oil prices will support the recovery. Speakers agreed that significant progress has been made in implementing the kingdom’s economic and social reform agenda. However, they underscored the need for deeper structural reforms to support diversification and growth. 

The vaccine program, strengthening of energy prices, and end of the rift with other GCC countries will support the recovery in Qatar. We expect the current account and fiscal balances to shift to sizeable surpluses in 2021 and 2022. 

The COVID-19-induced collapse in international tourism was unprecedented. Even in an optimistic scenario, tourism revenues will remain subdued in 2021. As a result, the economic recovery in countries such as Thailand will be slower. Furthermore, external pressures are set to rise as imports rebound strongly.

Our baseline projections do not envisage recovery in tourism to pre-pandemic levels before 2023. Faster recovery in tourism hinges on rapid advancements in vaccine distribution.

We compare the cases of 12 countries that have attempted to unify their FX markets. Unified exchange rate systems eliminate distortions, reduce rent-seeking, and boost fiscal revenues. However, successful unification hinges on consistent underlying credit and fiscal policies and broad reforms.