Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
February 10, 2022
The ferocity of the global inflation rebound has come as a surprise.
Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...
February 3, 2022
Last week we reviewed the global recovery from COVID, …
noting that that the US has outperformed the rest of the world, …
with...
January 27, 2022
The US has made a remarkable recovery from COVID, …
which is mainly a reflection of very aggressive fiscal stimulus.
We survey the CO...
January 20, 2022
We last week published our updated EM exchange rate misalignments.
Many of our readers focused on our undervaluation call for China’s RMB, &he...
December 2, 2021
Early this year we warned about a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, …
with longer-term US yields rising sharply and weighing on emerging markets.
...
November 25, 2021
The scale of recent Turkish Lira depreciation rivals the 2018 sudden stop.
Back in 2018, US sanctions were the proximate cause of the Turkish Lira s...
November 4, 2021
Over the summer we wrote extensively about the great “fiscal illusion,” …
whereby low sovereign bond yields were seen as signaling ample fiscal spac...
October 28, 2021
When we started flagging global supply disruptions earlier this year, …
the severity of US delivery time delays and size of price mark-ups stood out...
October 14, 2021
Ever since the Fed signaled a “fast” taper at its September meeting, …
with tapering likely to start next month and QE concluding by mid-2022, …
l...
September 23, 2021
Markets have resigned themselves to Fed tapering, …
and see the cut-back in QE as a non-event for risk assets.
This is because net coupon issuance...
September 9, 2021
We have examined government bond yields for their information content.
Recent Global Macro Views focused on the thorny issue of “fiscal space,” …
...
September 2, 2021
Our recent pieces have focused on the run-up in government debt due to COVID, …
asking if this rise runs the risk of constraining governments in fut...
August 26, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is in many respects a huge fiscal shock, …
depressing tax revenues and raising spending to support households.
As a result, ...
August 12, 2021
The COVID shock caused debt levels around the world to rise sharply, …
even as yields on government bonds have fallen to unprecedented levels.
The...
August 5, 2021
The recent inflation spike is widely dismissed as a supply side phenomenon, …
whereby temporary supply chain disruptions are slowing economic reopen...
July 22, 2021
Repeated credit expansions drove Lira depreciation in recent years.
Credit stimulus boosts growth, but also widens the current account deficit.
It...
July 1, 2021
Earlier this year we coined the term “data tantrum,” ...
to describe the unprecedented reopening of the US economy, ...
which we thought would con...
June 17, 2021
We have devoted recent pieces to the low level of long-term US yields, …
a puzzle that had approached the Greenspan “conundrum” of the mid-2000s, …
...
June 10, 2021
We recently concluded a series of pieces on supply chain disruptions, …
looking at their fall-out on the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation metric.
...
June 3, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, …
even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding sharply....