Entries for 'Asia Pacific'

The recent financial distresses among Chinese property developers are inevitable given the excessive leverage and tightening real estate policies. Careful resolution of developer debts is needed to ring fence risks while minimize moral hazards. 

We have revised our 2021 growth outlook for ASEAN+ from 4.5% to 3.6%. This is mostly due to lockdowns weighing on manufacturing and services. However, ASEAN+ countries have more policy space to respond to shocks. Non-resident capital flows are projected to rebound this year to $228 bn. FDI and portfolio debt are key drivers but 21H2 will likely see a slowdown. Nonetheless, we expect flows above pre-pandemic levels in 2021 and 2022.

China's post-Covid stimulus was more restrained than after the great financial crisis (GFC) even though the Covid shock was about twice that by GFC in terms of the damage to GDP growth.

In this note, we update out view on inflation and monetary policy in emerging markets. Rising inflation, even if partially transitory, has forced the hand of EM central banks. We expect inflationary pressures in many countries to peak in the next six months. Slowing growth, favorable base effects, and lower commodity prices will be the drivers. However, rate hikes were also prompted by expansionary fiscal policy in some cases. Furthermore, tightening global liquidity in 2022 may add pressure on central banks.

ASEAN-5 countries experienced strong, export-driven growth in 2021H1. However, the COVID Delta variant is already affecting business sentiment. With vaccination rates still low, we expect growth to slow markedly in H2. Lockdowns in the ASEAN-5 are also beginning to affect global value chains. We expect monetary and fiscal policies to remain supportive into next year.

We expect real GDP growth to remain around 4% in FY2021/22. Monetary policy remains accommodative. Adequate net capital inflows will offset the widening CA deficit, increasing FX reserves. We expect further fiscal consolidation supported by ongoing reforms under the IMF EFF arrangement. 

We expect consumption and manufacturing investment to pick up in 2H and support the recovery process, while the tailwinds of exports and real estate will taper off in 2H. We expect China’s GDP to grow by 5.4% and 8.6% y/y in 2H and the whole year 2021, respectively. 

Domestic consumption lagged export growth in China’s post-COVID-19 recovery. This is in part because stimulus policies have targeted businesses instead of households. Surging household debt, uneven income and wealth distribution across China have tamped down consumption rates.

We use VAR models to decompose the effect of commodities and FX on EM inflation. Turkey and Russia, for different reasons, appear most exposed to exchange rate shocks. Headline inflation in South Africa and Brazil appear to be driven by energy prices, while price dynamics in Indonesia are more responsive to non-energy commodities. We expect tight stances in Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey to keep expectations anchored.

Since 2008, local governments (LG) have accounted for 80% of the increase in China’s government debt. Containing LG debt has become a policy priority given their limited fiscal resources and growing indebtedness. 

This note investigates the forces that have contributed to China’s debt burden since 2009. We found that the lever-age ratio, defined as debt relative to GDP, was driven by different forces at different times. China’s three deleveraging attempts garnered mixed results. 

China’s economic ties with Latin America grew at 19% compound annual rate over the past two decades thanks to China’s growing appetite for commodities. This note discusses the latest trade and investment developments since a detailed examination of data helps show the changing and nuanced picture.

The COVID-19-induced collapse in international tourism was unprecedented. Even in an optimistic scenario, tourism revenues will remain subdued in 2021. As a result, the economic recovery in countries such as Thailand will be slower. Furthermore, external pressures are set to rise as imports rebound strongly.

ASEAN countries will bounce back from the COVID-19 shock this year. However, the pace of the recovery varies due to uneven pandemic control. Supply chain disruptions subside, and ASEAN exports are rising sharply. Fiscal and monetary policy stances will likely remain supportive this year.

In 2020, China’s large current account surplus was mostly offset by similarly large capital outflows. Given FDI and portfolio surpluses, capital outflows were categorized in the Other Investment account, and more specifically, as China’s external loans and deposits. 
 

China's stock market has typically been thought of as volatile, driven by capricious retail investors. The market has improved markedly in the past few years, thanks to greater participation of domestic and global institutional investors. This note examines the growth of China's A-share market. 

Foreign investors are aggressively buying Chinese bonds but are concentrated in sovereign and quasi-sovereigns. Bond inflows in 2020 were driven by index inclusion, attractive local yields, and a strengthening RMB. This note discusses the allocations of foreign investment and the type of inflows.

We expect Frontier Asia to remain broadly resilient to the COVID-19 shock. Loose monetary and fiscal policies will extend into ‘21 and support growth. However, tourism will continue to weigh on growth and current accounts. Trade tensions and growing debt are the key risks to their economic outlook.

China’s exports were remarkably resilient in 2020, thanks to strong demand for PPE and WFH products. Export’s contribution to China’s economic growth in 2020 was greater than the headline number indicated. China’s exports are likely to be more balanced in 2021 as vaccination reopens global economy. 

Tensions and disputes between the U.S. and China are likely to continue, possibly resulting in further sanctions. We focus on lessons learned from the U.S. sanctions policy towards Russia, and what those could mean for U.S. sanctions towards Hong Kong or China.