Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
December 3, 2020
We’ve been writing about beneficial effects from currency devaluations, ...
which – when they are large – help rebalance current accounts materially...
November 12, 2020
The export channel from devaluation remains a positive force for EM one we think is underappreciated at the current juncture.
November 5, 2020
Many emerging market currencies have fallen sharply this year, …
after trend-depreciating in real terms for many years prior to 2020.
We screen EM...
October 29, 2020
Many EM currencies have weakened sharply this year, …
but the devaluation trend substantially predates COVID-19.
Depreciations are large even in r...
September 10, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has us forecasting a global recession of -3.8 percent in 2020, …
substantially worse than the -0.4 percent contraction in the 200...
July 16, 2020
Brazil has been hit harder than Turkey in the COVID-19 shock, ...
with the Real down 25 percent in 2020 versus 13 percent for the Lira.
That pictu...
June 18, 2020
Turkey has substantially outgrown the rest of EM in the COVID-19 shock.
It has also seen a more rapid and marked decline in its official FX reserves...
May 28, 2020
Non-resident portfolio outflows from EM have been large, amounting to a five standard deviation shock in March and April.
May 14, 2020
The G-4 central banks are doing QE on an unprecedented scale, …
led by the Fed whose weekly purchases annualize to $2.5 trillion Dollars, ...
whic...
April 30, 2020
The US policy response to COVID-19 stands out in international comparisons.
Fiscal stimulus is likely to take government debt from 80 to 110 percent...
April 23, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has prompted a historic policy response in the US.
Fiscal stimulus will likely take government debt from 80 to 110 percent of GDP...
April 16, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has hit emerging market currencies hard.
Lots of comparisons are being made on who has been affected more.
Those need to allow ...
March 23, 2020
The global economic outlook has been shifting at lightning speed.
On March 5 we cut global growth in 2020 from 2.6 to 1.6 percent, ...
and further...
March 19, 2020
We downgraded 2020 global growth from 2.6 to 1.6 percent two weeks ago, ...
given a sharp contraction in China in Q1 and slowing activity in the Uni...
March 12, 2020
We last week revised down growth forecasts for this year, ...
with global growth potentially approaching 1 percent in 2020.
We have written a lot ...
March 5, 2020
We made our “no recession” call last year with a high degree of conviction, ...
because data pointed to an end of the inventory overhang in manufact...
February 27, 2020
Last week we identified a building credit impulse in Turkey, ...
rivaling in size the Q1 2019 credit expansion ahead of elections.
There are sign...
February 20, 2020
A succession of credit expansions shaped Turkey’s macro picture in recent years.
The large credit expansion in 2017 boosted growth that year to very...
January 30, 2020
EM growth has failed to outpace that in advanced countries since 2013, ...
a prolonged growth slump we have been calling “secular stagnation” in EM....
January 23, 2020
Growth has slowed sharply across many emerging markets, ...
a phenomenon we have been calling “secular stagnation” in EM.
Driving this growth slo...