Entries for 'EM Vulnerability'
May 27, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, …
even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding sharply....
May 20, 2021
We have been documenting unprecedented supply chain disruptions, …
which stand out for their severity and for their increasingly global dispersion.
...
May 13, 2021
We have been documenting severe supply chain disruptions in US manufacturing, …
with supplier delivery times almost as stretched as in Japan after F...
May 6, 2021
We are revising our Turkish Lira fair value to $/TRY 9.50.
This decision is driven by balance of payments fundamentals, …
whereby the current acco...
April 22, 2021
We last week began a series on global supply disruptions, …
which showed that rising delivery times in global manufacturing, …
rival what Japan ex...
April 15, 2021
Disruptions to the global manufacturing supply chain are temporary, …
and are likely to fade as the US and other economies continue to reopen.
Yet...
April 8, 2021
As vaccinations progress and the US economy reopens, ...
economic data are starting to come in that look very strong.
This is the flip-side of wea...
March 25, 2021
Turkey has suffered three BoP sudden stops in recent years.
The Lira almost fully recovered after the August 2018 sudden stop, …
because a deep re...
February 18, 2021
There was a dramatic credit expansion in Turkey last year, …
which drove current account deficit widening and reserve losses.
This underlying sour...
December 24, 2020
The BoJ and ECB have a problem in common.
Both have been out-eased by the Federal Reserve.
This repeats the policy mistake of the BoJ in 2008/9.
...
December 21, 2020
The OPEC meeting in early March was a big turning point for markets in 2020.
Failure to agree production cuts in the face of global recession sent o...
December 11, 2020
This year saw an unprecedented shock to global demand and markets.
We look back at 2020 to highlight what we think are the key take-aways, …
begin...
December 3, 2020
We’ve been writing about beneficial effects from currency devaluations, ...
which – when they are large – help rebalance current accounts materially...
November 12, 2020
The export channel from devaluation remains a positive force for EM one we think is underappreciated at the current juncture.
November 5, 2020
Many emerging market currencies have fallen sharply this year, …
after trend-depreciating in real terms for many years prior to 2020.
We screen EM...
October 29, 2020
Many EM currencies have weakened sharply this year, …
but the devaluation trend substantially predates COVID-19.
Depreciations are large even in r...
September 10, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has us forecasting a global recession of -3.8 percent in 2020, …
substantially worse than the -0.4 percent contraction in the 200...
July 16, 2020
Brazil has been hit harder than Turkey in the COVID-19 shock, ...
with the Real down 25 percent in 2020 versus 13 percent for the Lira.
That pictu...
June 18, 2020
Turkey has substantially outgrown the rest of EM in the COVID-19 shock.
It has also seen a more rapid and marked decline in its official FX reserves...
May 28, 2020
Non-resident portfolio outflows from EM have been large, amounting to a five standard deviation shock in March and April.