Entries for 'Latin America'
November 26, 2019
Growth underperformance has amplified social demands for change. While protests will weigh on growth, as in other EMs facing social turmoil, several mitigating factors exist. Bolstering a more inclusive agenda is a tall order, and the risk of erosion of macro fundamentals and institutions is high.
November 7, 2019
Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm are wide by EM standards, largely due to energy trade imbalances, but lower oil prices since 2014 have helped ease financing gaps. Despite global headwinds and regional tensions, we project CA deficits to stay contained in 2019-20, broadly financed by FDI.
October 15, 2019
Pension reform has improved Brazil’s growth prospects amid an anemic recovery.
October 8, 2019
We assess the macroeconomic impact of pension reform.
Fewer cuts will be needed elsewhere to meet fiscal rules, ...
making overall adjustment mana...
September 10, 2019
We have long argued Argentina’s program is too small, given our estimates for the country’s external funding gap. The principal drivers of that gap are debt amortization and – to a large and rising extent – resident capital flight. Debt reprofiling is unlikely to change these numbers.
August 27, 2019
We analyze external adjustment in Colombia, Peru, and Chile, commodity exporters with sound macro policy frameworks, in the aftermath of the decline in commodity prices. Despite real depreciation, exports have improved only modestly, with most of the adjustment due to significant import compression.
August 20, 2019
Resident outflows were a source of pressure in 2018. They are unlikely to abate as the election approaches since Argentina’s electoral cycles often prompt outflows. We are far from the outflows seen in the 2001 crisis, but the external funding picture will remain tough given limited resources left under the IMF program.
August 12, 2019
We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.
July 10, 2019
Colombia's public debt has increased steadily. We assess the medium-term fiscal framework, which includes optimistic growth projections, relying heavily on improved tax collection. Debt will fall slowly in conservative scenarios.
June 26, 2019
Bearish sentiment stems from policy concerns. Key risks are Pemex’s fragility and US tensions. Weakening growth will make fiscal targets challenging to meet and add pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy. Market discipline and a robust macro framework should help limit policy slippage.
May 8, 2019
Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm remain wide and are largely dependent on remittances and oil prices. While high FDI helps cover external financing needs, debt buildups have been significant in some countries, increasing external vulnerability amid limited buffers.
December 19, 2018
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
December 17, 2018
Growth has rebounded, driven by higher copper prices and robust investment. Ongoing reforms will help reduce the fiscal deficit and stabilize public debt. High external corporate debt poses challenges, but several factors mitigate risks.
November 28, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.
November 16, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
October 15, 2018
Growth has picked up on the back of robust macro policies. Rising oil prices helped insulate Colombia from EM pressure.' Structural reforms to narrow
August 30, 2018
A preliminary bilateral deal was announced this week, "¦ featuring some restrictive terms for the auto industry. The auto industry is large and very l
July 18, 2018
Brazil approaches elections in a complex market situation, "¦ and suffering from long-standing fiscal vulnerabilities. We analyze the electoral outloo
June 25, 2018
OPEC and Russia have agreed to lift oil output starting July 2018.' The agreement is ambiguous with no concrete output targets and country level alloc
June 20, 2018
Growth has strengthened, driven by fiscal stimulus and favorable terms of trade. Fiscal consolidation remains a challenge amid increased global volati