Entries for 'Sub-Saharan Africa'
April 10, 2019
We recently returned from a research trip to South Africa where we met policymakers, analysts, rating agencies, and local asset managers. This note summarizes our key takeaways from the trip.
April 10, 2019
Nationwide protests continue, triggered by dissatisfaction with the Al-Bashir regime. Sudan has contended for years with FX shortages and high inflation. Restoring confidence will require new leadership with the credibility and will to implement reform, and we expect a transition to take place.
February 22, 2019
South Africa’s Budget 2019 includes adjustments, which are markedly offset by sizable bailout funding for Eskom, leaving the government’s deficit targets to widen compared to those presented last October. The worsening fiscal position and rising public debt are key risks for the credit rating.
February 22, 2019
Angola is seeking to make its growth model more sustainable, inclusive, and diversified. An IMF program has started, and policy adjustment is underway, but benefits will take time to accrue. Evidence connecting key figures to a Mozambican scandal may limit the credibility of the reform drive.
September 21, 2018
An acceleration in investment should lift real GDP growth to 7.4% in 2018. Fiscal and current account deficits are likely to widen this year but remai
August 23, 2018
Public debt rose sharply as fiscal deficits widened to finance investment. Very low international reserves give rise to external vulnerability. Fiscal
April 11, 2018
Growth is recovering as oil prices and production rebound. Structural weaknesses cloud the medium-term outlook. The security situation is tenuous, and
April 2, 2018
The deficit spiked last year, driving public debt even higher, to 57% of GDP. Election and drought-related expenses were the main deficit drivers, and
March 13, 2018
Recent political changes and policy adjustments have improved investor and consumer sentiment.' Fiscal policy is focused on deficit reduction, which c
February 1, 2018
"¢' ' Rising global bond yields rattle the "risk-on" consensus "¢' ' Despite risks, the outlook remains constructive for EM flows-particularly under
December 8, 2017
South Africa avoided a potentially damaging ratings downgrade from Moody's in November, but has been put on watch for a downgrade in the next three mo
November 2, 2017
The fiscal picture has worsened - government debt is now projected to reach nearly 60% of GDP in FY2020/21 and the primary balance remains in deficit,
October 26, 2017
Despite South Africa's immense natural resource wealth, the mining sector's contribution to GDP con-tinues to slide Unease over the new mining charter
October 9, 2017
New oil production has boosted growth and shored up the balance of payments Greater exchange rate stability and falling inflation has provided scope f
September 13, 2017
While pressure on the naira has eased due to higher oil prices, increased production, and a weaker dollar, the spread between the parallel and officia
July 27, 2017
Non-performing loans rose sharply last year and are expected to increase further in 2017. While lending to the public sector continues to grow briskly
July 20, 2017
On our recent visit to Lagos and Abuja, we found business confidence recovering gradually and a consensus that the worst of the oil crash was over. No
July 10, 2017
The net IIP has turned positive, driven by a surge in outward direct investment over the past decade. However, net portfolio debt liabilities and the
July 6, 2017
South Africa's current account deficit has become more entrenched over the past decade. A larger income deficit now outweighs improvements in trade fr
June 16, 2017
Inflation is back in its target range, driven lower by moderation in food prices, and we expect it to hover around 5% in H2 2017. In the absence of a