Entries for 'Latin America'
May 14, 2018
We have been writing on the growing vulnerabilities across EM, where we have been focused on two countries: Turkey and Argentina . Given recent dev
May 11, 2018
GDP and political institutions have collapsed, and hyperinflation is well entrenched. There is no foreign exchange left to meet external debt payments
April 18, 2018
Recent years have seen profound political turmoil weigh on activity. The stage is now set for a rebound in activity; we forecast solid growth this yea
April 6, 2018
Uncertain relations with the US and the coming election cloud the outlook. NAFTA renegotiation is a potential current account negative, but the peso h
March 13, 2018
The peso is among the weakest EM currencies year-to-date. This reflects a rapidly widening current account deficit, in part due to pent-up demand. Whi
December 14, 2017
An ingrained decline in core inflation?' Core inflation fell to its lowest level since 2007, driven by items related to the food & beverage and trans
November 22, 2017
NAFTA gave a big push to trade and financial integration, favorably affecting Mexico Uncertainty over a possible reversal could weigh on growth, leadi
November 21, 2017
The government has taken advantage of increased political capital to push for needed structural changes Relying on a gradual policy approach, producti
October 24, 2017
This note describes the NAFTA renegotiation framework and assesses the implications of a possible exit' Discrepancies on key issues have led to protra
October 23, 2017
A strengthening economy has helped the government obtain a positive result in the midterm elections' Increased public support for prudent policies pro
October 20, 2017
"¢ A negotiated solution to the political crisis has become more difficult following the regional elections "¢ The likelihood of holding a legitimate
October 5, 2017
Most countries have eased monetary policy to support growth. We analyze the recent period of strong currency depreciations to obtain guidance on the p
September 29, 2017
Inflation fell to its lowest level since 1999 driven by lower food, dwellings, and transport contributions. Using a bottom-up approach, we found incre
September 18, 2017
Despite political woes, the reform drive regained force, improving macro prospects amid global tailwinds A sizable fiscal deficit remains the major ma
August 24, 2017
Limited access to global debt markets and waning oil income has eroded international reserves While debt servicing has been a government priority, dra
August 14, 2017
Primaries reflected overall support for moderate candidates, positioning the government well for the October 22 midterm elections A brighter political
August 10, 2017
Weak business confidence has been a critical transmission channel' We quantify the impact of dwindling confidence
August 3, 2017
The new CPI covers a broader geographical area, reflecting a more representative consumption basket The central bank will rely on this benchmark to as
July 26, 2017
Following a strong 2017Q1, our monthly growth tracker suggests a deceleration in the short-term Political woes have eroded growth expectations, reflec
July 17, 2017
The approval of labor market reforms in Congress and the corruption conviction of former President Lula da Silva have given a lift to Brazilian asset