Entries for 'Asia Pacific'

China’s SOEs are often criticized for being inefficient and highly leveraged, but the performance gap between SOEs and privately-owned companies is smaller than many think. SOEs gained advantages during the Supply-side Reform, while private companies have lost more to the trade war. 

The PBoC recently lowered interest rates for the first time in four years by 5 basis points, remaining more hawkish than its peers. The PBoC is constrained by elevated CPI, uncertain RMB & outflows, and the housing market. We expect additional slow, gradual interest rate cuts in the coming quarters. 

China’s $2 trillion external liability seems large, but is manageable given China’s GDP, exports, and foreign assets. FDI loans, trade credits, and bank deposits are relatively sticky. China’s external debt overhang should be a minor concern for BoP and RMB depreciation. 

Strong investment growth is a prerequisite for Indonesia to grow faster than 6% per annum. The global commodity cycle, competitive external investment environment, and limited policy stimulus are potential headwinds to a meaningful pick-up in investment. 

Household debt has fueled China's housing, consumption, and economic growth. Households' large financial and housing assets mitigate the risks of rising leverage. However, household leverage is no longer low relative to income, and can no longer be used to stimulate economic growth. 

Vietnam has further integrated into regional supply chains. It has benefited from US trade diversion away from China, and production reallocation and investment by Chinese firms. The key risk is the US changing its policy stance towards Vietnam.

High import content in export production and investment is evident across the region. Recent import compression should support current account positions amid weak exports. However, the multiplier effects of import plunge on investment will likely depress GDP growth.

China currently faces headwinds to growth from both US tariffs and weaker domestic consumption. Compared with 2016, another period of soft exports and weak demand, many cyclical indicators—such as investment and retail—are weaker now, but structural indicators are more promising. 

External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk. 

The IIF released a collection of papers analyzing the state of the Chinese economy. This research coincides with the IIF’s 2019 China Roundtable, held on the margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. 

Trade tensions raised fears of slowing global trade. We develop a model to track US trade in real time, based on detailed weekly customs information. The picture is more positive than in Asian data, as US trade stabilized in real terms in early 2019. We think that global trade fears are overblown.

Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.

In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.

Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F

China is seeing the rise of a new kind of conglomerate, companies that occupy unprecedented roles in the world's second largest economy. With business

EM Asian currencies have historically exhibited "fear of floating," with many countries using official intervention to stabilize exchange rates. W