Trade wars could dent profit margins, challenging expectations of strong earnings growth European investors likely to keep calm and carry on after dov
Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a
Our model suggests that a USD10 pb oil price increase boosts the current account by USD15 billion.' The current level of oil prices, if maintained, wo
Sizable government credit guarantees boosted output growth this year. With the credit impulse weakening, output growth will likely slow down to 4% or
Increasing share of non-residents makes the sovereign bond market more sensitive to investors' sentiment. A lower yield curve and abundant domestic li
Phillips curve estimation suggests that supply-side effects explained the core inflation decline. A stronger ruble contributed to lower inflation and
Ongoing lira weakness highlights the growing risks to external financing and inflation outlook. The larger current account deficit financed mainly by