Entries for 'EM Europe'

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.

Private sector balance sheets are susceptible, at varying degrees, to external debt rollover risk and lira depreciation. Under the currently improving, yet fragile, investor sentiment, Turkey’s sizable amortization payments will continue to expose the economy to high rollover risk through 2019. 

Early this year we signaled rising EM risk , especially for Argentina and Turkey. We also flagged growing potential for contagion to the broader EM co

Early this year we identified the Lira as significantly overvalued , given last year's policy mix that widened the current account deficit. However

Trade wars could dent profit margins, challenging expectations of strong earnings growth European investors likely to keep calm and carry on after dov

Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a

Our model suggests that a USD10 pb oil price increase boosts the current account by USD15 billion.' The current level of oil prices, if maintained, wo

Sizable government credit guarantees boosted output growth this year. With the credit impulse weakening, output growth will likely slow down to 4% or

Increasing share of non-residents makes the sovereign bond market more sensitive to investors' sentiment. A lower yield curve and abundant domestic li