Entries for 'Middle East North Africa'
June 20, 2019
Supported by MSCI upgrade Saudi Arabia has attracted $10.8bn in foreign equity inflows so far this year. In contrast, renewed trade tensions sparked a sharp decline in portfolio equity flows to other EMs. Saudi Arabia can count on an additional $40bn in equity inflows in the coming years.
June 5, 2019
Holdings of U.S. Treasuries have increased, driven by portfolio restructuring in GOSI and the PIF. As across the GCC, public foreign assets exceed official reserves of the central bank. A further increase in the PIF’s assets abroad is set to improve the country's international investment position.
May 19, 2019
Lebanon once again is at a crossroads. Painful measures are needed in difficult situations, and achieving fiscal sustainability, rebuilding confidence, and preserving the peg to the dollar inevitably will re-quire strong adjustment.
May 15, 2019
Loose monetary and fiscal policies have led to the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances. The IMF deal of $6bn will be adequate only with additional foreign inflows and significant rollovers. Decisive policy action and substantial external financing will be needed to achieve macroeconomic stability.
May 8, 2019
Oversupply and weak demand have weighed on real estate prices since 2014. Vulnerability stems from an unrealistic economic model amplified by adverse external factors, with detrimental effects to growth and financial stability. However, policy responses may slow the pace of future price declines.
April 18, 2019
Growth in 2019 will come from ongoing structural reforms to support non-oil activity, as the country has signaled that it will comply with the OPEC+ cuts. Medium-term prospects remain favorable. While the country has a new president, he is expected to remain committed to Nazarbayev's reform agenda.
April 10, 2019
Nationwide protests continue, triggered by dissatisfaction with the Al-Bashir regime. Sudan has contended for years with FX shortages and high inflation. Restoring confidence will require new leadership with the credibility and will to implement reform, and we expect a transition to take place.
April 4, 2019
In the face of popular pressure, President Bouteflika stepped down after 20 years in power, yet much uncertainty remains about the transition to a new government. Algeria’s growth model of hydrocarbon-financed public spending is not feasible with low oil prices, and wide-ranging reforms are needed.
March 24, 2019
Non-resident capital flows to MENAP are projected to rise slightly to $215 billion in 2019. Strong fundamentals in key countries, including large financial buffers and low debt, should support flows. Sovereign bond issuance will remain the main source of non-resident capital inflows.
February 27, 2019
Average growth in MENAP is foreseen to decelerate slightly to 2.2% in 2019—below the population growth. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region. Non-resident capital inflows to MENAP should rise marginally this year to $189 billion.
February 20, 2019
Egypt is making good progress on economic reforms in the context of an IMF-supported program. However, to sustain the progress and to lift the growth trajectory durably over the long term, deeper and more fundamental reforms are urgently needed.
February 1, 2019
A soft exit out of the debt overhang is possible and the authorities now recognize the urgency of committing to meaningful and widespread reforms to improve long-term fiscal sustainability and rebuild confidence. However, the scope of credible reforms for 2019 remains unclear.
January 9, 2019
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s grip on power remains firm following recent events and the cabinet reshuffle.
Non-oil growth could accelerate to ...
January 7, 2019
Expansionary fiscal policy will continue to drive non-oil growth, as fragile investment sentiment and regional tensions continue to hinder growth of the private non-oil sector. We expect overall growth to moderate to 2.0% in 2019, dragged down by compliance with the recent OPEC+ deal.
December 19, 2018
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
December 14, 2018
Sentiment on oil prices remained weak amid doubts that the planned production cuts will be enough to rein in oversupply, and as investors suspect that OPEC+ would honor their pledge to cut production. We expect Brent oil prices to average $67/bbl in 2019 if the OPEC+ agreement is fully implemented.
December 5, 2018
Ongoing geopolitical tensions have created headwinds, but Qatar’s economy has shown signs of resiliency. We expect growth to accelerate to 2.9% in 2019, driven by natural gas production and public investment. Exiting from OPEC sends a symbolic message that the country wants to chart its own course.
December 5, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.
November 28, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.
November 6, 2018
On November 5, the U.S. sanctions on Iran's financial and energy sectors took effect.' The temporary allotments, combined with the increased global oi