Entries for 'Mature Economies'
March 22, 2022
The adverse effect of the latest surge in oil prices is likely to be much smaller than those arising from previous shocks. Advanced and emerging economies have substantially reduced the amount of oil used per unit of output.
February 23, 2022
Natural gas imports from Russia have fallen sharply, and storage levels are extremely low. Europe’s high dependence on the country creates vulnerabilities and limits policy options. In the short term, Europe would likely be able to manage even in case of a full disruption. But a full replacement of Russian imports does not seem feasible for a number of reasons. Among them are infrastructure constraints and the lack of alternative supplier capacities. Thus, politically and/or economically painful demand-side adjustments would be needed. Nonetheless, Europe should begin to invest in reducing vulnerabilities while there is time.
December 14, 2021
High oil prices since end-2020 are largely driven by pervasive supply shortages from the lack of adequate investment. Current futures contracts point to Brent average oil prices of $73/bbl and $69/bbl in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
November 19, 2021
Inflation is rising due to higher food and energy prices, deglobalization, and supply chain disruptions. In addition, the recent increases in global CPI stem from widespread monetary easing and expansionary fiscal policy. Inflation may exceed central bank targets through 2022 and into 2023.
August 13, 2021
One motivation for Fed QE was always to push investors out of US Treasuries into riskier assets. Previous QE programs achieved this by pushing down yields and flattening the yield curve. Successive Fed QE programs increasingly embraced this underlying rationale for LSAPs, culminating in QE3 that had a weighted average maturity far longer than previous programs, consistent with the idea that one objective of QE is to take duration out of the market.
July 19, 2021
Base metal prices have far exceeded our initial forecasts, supported by low inventory. We expect average base metal prices to be 44% higher in 2021 and decline by 5% in 2022 as some supply constraints ease.
December 19, 2018
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
December 5, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.
November 28, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.
November 16, 2018
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
November 13, 2018
Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion ($187 trillion ex-financials) in Q2 2018-mainly driven by mature markets. In contrast, EM debt continues to rise, topping $71 trillion in Q2 ($60 trillion ex-financials).
October 25, 2018
If you would like to receive the Sticky Notes email, please send us an email' here ' with your information. This week is our "all politics" edition o
July 9, 2018
Time to Pay the Piper ' The global debt mountain topped $247 trillion in Q1 2018, with the non-financial sector accounting for $186 trillion of that'
May 4, 2018
On April 19, the IIF hosted the second annual Washington Policy Summit, bringing together U.S. administration officials, leading policy analysts, and
March 26, 2018
The mapping from wider fiscal deficits to the current account has been imperfect, reflecting offsetting moves in other sectors of the economy and a
March 13, 2018
One month ago, average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, sparking anxiety that the US economy may - finally - be starting to overheat. We ar
March 8, 2018
Last year we published a series of reports on red versus blue states, "¦ which showed that red state labor markets are materially lagging blue ones. W
February 27, 2018
Longer-term Treasury yields have risen sharply year-to-date. A key question for markets is whether the sell-off will continue. We examine the various
January 22, 2018
Trade policy is becoming a key area of focus for the administration. We examine the adjustment in the US current account in recent years, looking t
December 14, 2017
Low inflation has been a conundrum in recent years, "¦ but currently nowhere more so than in the Euro zone and Japan. We evaluate how G-3 inflation ha