Frontier market debt rose by over $250 billion in 2018, reaching $3.2 trillion for the 26 countries in our sample. Zambia, Vietnam, and Tunisia saw the largest rise in debt ratios. 

The April 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Systemic Risk, Insurance and upcoming events. 

EM assets have enjoyed tailwinds—more dovish Fed/ECB, better growth prospects, attractive valuations… but recent dollar strength and higher oil prices highlight risks ahead; Non-financial corporate EM FX debt up by over $2 trillion since 2009, pushing total EM FX debt to $5.3 trillion; High levels of dollarization reflect declining consumer confidence in Turkey and Argentina

We scan across EM for where – besides Turkey – growth is heavily credit dependent. Colombia, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil and Poland have growth heavily linked to credit.

The April edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

Increasing international reserves provide a buffer, but inflows excluding official support are still weak. Amortization is lower in 2019 but still sizable and renewed domestic capital flight remains a risk.

Growth in 2019 will come from ongoing structural reforms to support non-oil activity, as the country has signaled that it will comply with the OPEC+ cuts. Medium-term prospects remain favorable. While the country has a new president, he is expected to remain committed to Nazarbayev's reform agenda. 

Elephant in the room: the U.S. accounts for fully a third of all global government debt; Fewer countries likely to see above-trend growth in 2020; Our new “green flows” tracker shows a sharp pickup for Q1; H1 2019 IIF Survey of Long-term Investors: fewer concerns about trade tensions, China slowdown