On January 25, 2019 the IIF submitted its response to the IAIS public consultation on the Holistic Framework for Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector.
Davos debates debt, urges action on financing for sustainable development goals; Analysts get more pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings; Global equity valuations are back to long-run averages—but are they cheap?; Long-term investors look to increase allocations to EM equities
This IIF Report “Addressing Market Fragmentation: The Need for Enhanced Global Regulatory Cooperation”, developed by the Special Committee on Effective Regulation (SCER), seeks to define the problem of market fragmentation.
Our trackers do not point to a convincing pick-up in flows beyond China, with flows to key emerging markets like India and South Africa quite weak, even after sizeable and persistent outflows during last year’s EM sell-off.
The January 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in market fragmentation, regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events.
This survey covers issues affecting asset allocation, including current macro-financial dynamics as well as structural trends that will shape the future of the industry, including sustainable finance, infrastructure investment and regulatory reform.
We assess the impact of potential policy surprises, using our BoP Nowcast and positioning toolkits. Low current account deficits pose limited risk, but in Mexico heavier positioning than in Brazil could amplify the impact of negative policy surprises.
The Basel Committee on Bank Supervision finalised the Basel III Market Risk standard on January 14, 2019.
Policy dissonance has been a key factor in market volatility, yield curve flattening; Growing concern about the longer-term implications of a U.S. government shutdown; If bank stocks are a bellwether, signals are not reassuring; China deleveraging on the back burner; rising refinancing risk for U.S. corporates
Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.
Global debt has grown by over 12% (or $27 trillion) since 2016, reaching $244 trillion (318% of GDP) in Q3 2018.
Turkey and Argentina saw sharp depreciations in 2018, that erased substantial real exchange rate overvaluations. We assess the BoP impact in 2019 using our Nowcast.
Portfolio inflows to EMs were $3.1 bn in December. Equity and debt flows softened to $2.9 bn and $0.2 bn, respectively. Net capital flows remained in negative territory in November.
Dichotomy between still-strong growth and market warning signals leaves investors scrambling; Upward pressure on overnight rates could trigger liquidity shortages, higher volatility in money markets; Lowest tier of investment grade now accounts for 42% of the U.S. corporate debt universe, up from 30% in 2008; Central bank reserve managers shift away from USD in 2018
On January 7, 2019, the IIF Senior Accounting Group (SAG) submitted to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) its comments on the Discussion Paper on Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Equity.
We see global growth worries as overblown. US data are catching down with elsewhere, but that was inevitable and to be expected, a normal sign of global business cycle swings. We lower our growth forecasts modestly, but continue to see a solid overall picture.
With softening profit margins and high debt levels, some parts of the U.S. corporate sector are looking more vulnerable