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CEEMEA Views: South Africa - Growth Will Remain Weak

Structural impediments remain unaddressed and constrain near-term growth. Low growth is the main reason for revenue underperformance and rising debt. Credible fiscal consolidation could improve business and consumer sentiment, paving the way for real GDP growth to pick up to around 2% in the medium term.

Green Weekly Insight: Carrots and Sticks: the EU's Green New Deal

As a roadmap to carbon neutrality by 2050, the Green New Deal is seeking profound structural change in the EU’s growth model—in production, consumption, investment and saving.

Global Macro Views: Secular Stagnation in EM

The term “secular stagnation” is typically used in the context of the US, ... to describe subdued growth in the years following the glob...

RiskMinds Conference 2019 

The annual RiskMinds International conference was held in Amsterdam during the first week of December, drawing an extensive Chief Risk Officer (CRO) community from all continents, including many of the regular participants in the IIF’s various regional CRO Fora.

IIF December Insurance Update 

This month's topics include:

  • FSOC Final Interpretive Guidance on Non-Bank Financial Company Determinations
  • IAIS Draft Application Paper on Liquidity Risk Management
  • IAIS Annual Conference, November 14-15, 2019, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • IIF Insurance Dialogue - December 6, 2019, London, U.K. 

FRT Episode 55: RiskMinds Headline Themes

Climate risk, the Ethical use of data, and digital transformation were the dominant themes of the annual RiskMinds conference, as leading CROs Jaco Grobler and Peter Deans join us to discuss.

Macro Notes: New IMF Program Will Prolong Ukraine Rally

Ukraine’s new agreement with the IMF is critical for external financing, even though recent flows into domestic bonds have alleviated pressure. The agreement signals confidence in ongoing reform efforts to markets, and will lead to renewed investor interest in local government bonds.

Pakistan: Encouraging Progress 

Five months into the IMF’s $6 billion EFF program, Pakistan’s progress looks better than anticipated. • We expect official reserves to continue recovering as the current account narrows and capital inflows improve. However, gross external financing needs at around 9% of GDP warrant caution. 

Oil Market: OPEC+ Cuts Not Enough To Lift Prices 

The extra 0.5 mbd cut may not be enough to rein in projected oversupply in 2020, since the OPEC+ bloc has already made cuts well beyond the 1.2 mbd target of the previous agreement. Consequently, we expect a decline in average Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel in 2020.

Economic Views: Has the US Substituted Chinese Imports?

We have been tracking the impact of tariffs on China in detail. All rounds of tariffs had a large impact on affected imports, ... but the extent o...


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