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Sustainable Debt Monitor: Up, up and away

Global sustainable debt issuance hit an all-time record of over $655 billion in 2020, driven by rapid growth in ESG and sustainability-linked bonds. A more supportive global policy landscape could spur even more issuance in 2021

Prudential Pathways: Industry Perspectives on Supervisory and Regulatory Approaches to Climate-Related and Environmental Risks

The objective of this paper is to communicate global industry views on the rapidly evolving set of supervisory and regulatory approaches to climate-related and environmental risks facing the banking and insurance sectors.

GMV: Lessons from the 2013 Taper Tantrum

Last week we proposed using positive data surprises as a test of Fed forward guidance. Intuitively, Fed forward guidance is a promise to keep rates ...

Macro Notes: Russia - Geopolitical Risks Dominate in 2021

We project a mild economic contraction in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery this year. This is due to limited lockdown measures, a strong financial system, and reliance on SOEs. The FY2021 NDAA extended Nord Stream 2 sanctions but may not prevent its completion. Geopolitical risks stem from the incoming U.S. administration and the EU’s green agenda.

Economic Views: Fiscal Deficit Monetization in Argentina

As last year, Argentina won’t be able to avoid deficit monetization. We model primary deficit scenarios and their impact on inflation. The g...

Frontier Africa Report: COVID-19 Exposes Pre-Existing Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa experienced the first recession in thirty years in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shock. The global recession weighed on external demand and pandemic-related shutdowns on domestic activity. However, commodity prices fared better than expected, and the virus spread less than in other regions. Oil exporters were hit hardest, while countries with more diversified export bases appear less affected. The economic slowdown has had a strong effect on countries’ fiscal positions, and policy space is scarce. As a result, debt is rising across the region, and many countries are seeking relief through the G20 DSSI. Improved market sentiment has led to a return of foreign investors and alleviated financing pressure. Growth is expected to rebound strongly in 2021 where macro and policy environments are supportive. Risks, however, skew to the downside and stem from a second COVID-19 wave and poliical instability.

Weekly Insight: Heyday for EM Corporate Eurobonds

EM corporates have racked up $4 trillion in FX debt since 2007, bringing total FX exposure to $7 trillion; More in store:  current USD weakness—with no Fed rate hike seen pre-2025—sets the stage for continued buildup in FX debt; EM corporate eurobond issuance reached $380 billion in 2020, up 10% from 2019; a record 95% of that was in USD; Most of this issuance was driven by non-financial corporates ($220bn), especially in China ($68 billion)

Global Macro Views: Taper Tantrum Risk in 2021

The global economy feels like back in 2010 after the Great Recession. Back then, the big central banks had eased and were locking in “low-for-...

FRT Episode 84: Machine Learning Governance

Rachel Bailey, a senior manager specializing in machine learning in model risk and validation at Lloyds Banking Group, joins us on FRT to discuss key findings from our recent Machine Learning Governance study.

China Spotlight: U.S. Sanctions: Lessons from the Russia Case 

Tensions and disputes between the U.S. and China are likely to continue, possibly resulting in further sanctions. We focus on lessons learned from the U.S. sanctions policy towards Russia, and what those could mean for U.S. sanctions towards Hong Kong or China. 

 

 

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