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CEEMEA Views: South Africa Trip Notes

We recently returned from a research trip to South Africa where we met policymakers, analysts, rating agencies, and local asset managers. This note summarizes our key takeaways from the trip. 

Sudan: Systemic Change Is Imminent

Nationwide protests continue, triggered by dissatisfaction with the Al-Bashir regime. Sudan has contended for years with FX shortages and high inflation. Restoring confidence will require new leadership with the credibility and will to implement reform, and we expect a transition to take place. 

White Paper: How China Failed to Fail

The IIF released a collection of papers analyzing the state of the Chinese economy. This research coincides with the IIF’s 2019 China Roundtable, held on the margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. 

March 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 3.2% 3m/3m sa ar in March. Business surveys suggest a moderate recovery ahead. Financial variables and hard data support the uptick. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.

Economic Views: EM Balance of Payments Nowcasts

We assess EM current accounts systematically, through the lens of our BoP Nowcast framework. Deficits in Turkey and Argentina will shrink, but Turkey’s financing needs will remain high. South Africa will have the largest deficit in EM. Reserve levels are comfortable in most countries, but buffers are limited in Turkey and South Africa.

Sustainable Finance in Focus: Green Bonds Take Root

With this note we are launching a new line of topical research on issues related to sustainable finance. After record levels of issuance in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, the green bond universe is now over $430 billion

IIF letter to Japanese FSA regarding Market Fragmentation

This letter has been submitted to Mr. Ryozo Himino, Vice Minister for International Affairs at the Japanese Financial Services Agency, following up on the Market Fragmentation work currently being undertaken by the Financial Stability Board and the Japanese Presidency of the G20. 

IOSCO Consultation: Sustainable Fin. in EM - Role of Securities Regulators

The IIF has submitted a response letter to IOSCO Consultation Report entitled “Sustainable finance in emerging markets and the role of securities regulators.”

Global Debt Monitor Insights: Growing Risks for Low-income Countries

Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries once again are becoming a source of concern, with total external debt and government indebtedness reaching their highest levels since 2005  

April 2019 Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Surprisingly,  EM currencies have been quite a mixed bag, and our high frequency tracking of flows shows a mixed rebound in Q1. We believe the underlying issue is that investors are over-positioned, with a positioning overhang after a decade of loose G-3 monetary policy. We upgrade our capital flows projection to EM only modestly, with non-resident flows of $1,260 bn in 2019, after $1,135 bn in 2018.



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