Facebook YouTube Twitter LinkedIn Menu Chevron Left Chevron Right Arrow Down Arrow Up Plus Plus Plus Plus Plus

Publications

Weekly Insight: Flight to Quality Ahead?

One factor behind global equity market jitters: the growing focus on credit risk. Credit spreads have widened only modestly in 2018, but look increasingly vulnerable to a trigger event. Rising rates highlight vulnerabilities in housing markets. Less reliance on hard-currency debt in EM Asia ex-China, but more in Africa/Middle East. 
 

Turkey Update – Exposure to Debt-Rollover and FX Risk

Private sector balance sheets are susceptible, at varying degrees, to external debt rollover risk and lira depreciation. Under the currently improving, yet fragile, investor sentiment, Turkey’s sizable amortization payments will continue to expose the economy to high rollover risk through 2019. 

Economic Views: Exposure to Russia Sanctions

  • Sanctions lowered capital flows to Russia permanently, limiting severely the ability of banks to borrow abroad.
  • Risk of new sanctions put pressure on government flows.We assess scope for contagion from expanded sanctions.
  • Foreign bank exposures to Russia shrunk significantly, and would be manageable under expanded sanctions.

Global Debt Monitor - November 2018

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion ($187 trillion ex-financials) in Q2 2018-mainly driven by mature markets. In contrast, EM debt continues to rise, topping $71 trillion in Q2 ($60 trillion ex-financials).

Global Macro Views: China's Vanishing Current Account Surplus

China's current account has traditionally registered large surpluses, but has swung into deficit this year based on data from Q1 through Q3, adding to the case that the RMB could be overvalued and needs to depreciate.

Economic Views: Why is China Slowing?

Just as in 2015, our activity tracker points to a slowdown, "¦ even though official GDP figures remain broadly stable. We compare the current slowdown

Weekly Insight: Unfazed

Investors undeterred by the prospect of gridlock after the U.S. midterm elections China sees much weaker FDI in Q3, though exports have held up well F

Ninth annual EY/IIF global bank risk management survey

The ninth annual global bank risk management survey, "ccelerating digital transformation: Four imperatives for risk management", carried out by EY and

October 2018 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 4.0% 3m/3m sa ar in October. Hard data main driver of decline. Trade volumes improve, but internal demand is still weak. LatAm an

Oil Market : Brent oil prices could decline below $70/bbl

On November 5, the U.S. sanctions on Iran's financial and energy sectors took effect.' The temporary allotments, combined with the increased global oi

 

IIF Headquarters
1333 H St NW, Suite 800E
Washington, DC 20005-4770
Tel: +1 202 857-3600
Fax: +1 202 775-1430
Email: info@iif.com

IIF Middle East and Africa
Regional Office
DIFC, The Gate Building,
Level 15
P.O. Box 121208
Dubai, United Arab
Emirates
Tel: +971 4401 9651

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Beijing
Winland International Finance Centre
Suite F920, 9F
No.7 Jinrong Avenue
Xicheng District, Beijing
100032, PRC
Tel: +86 10 5836 9100
Fax: +86 10 5836 9300

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Singapore
50 Raffles Place
#22-06 Singapore Land
Tower
Singapore 048623
Tel: +65 6592 5089

IIF European
Representative Office
Square de Meeûs 23
14th Floor
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel: +32 2 430 37 08

IIF Regional Office
10 Upper Bank St.
London E14 5NP
Tel: +44 207 006 4173