We examine the decline in core PCE inflation, looking at individual components within the inflation basket. We find that the decline can be accounted
The net IIP has turned positive, driven by a surge in outward direct investment over the past decade. However, net portfolio debt liabilities and the
South Africa's current account deficit has become more entrenched over the past decade. A larger income deficit now outweighs improvements in trade fr
We expect China's growth to stay robust in 2Q, growing at 6.9% y/y and beating consensus (6.8%) again. Our regression, using the PBoC quarterly survey
We examine how rising global interest rates might impact growth in emerging markets, differentiating between countries where growth has been consumpti
We were in Copenhagen last week meeting with members and hosting an event with Finance Denmark called "The Digital Agenda in Banking". We continue to
We examine the labor market "churn" and perform a sensitivity analysis on the US unemployment rate. Factoring in some slowing in hiring and a gradual