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Frontier LatAm: Fragile Growth Recovery 

We project a real GDP contraction of 7.5% in 2020 and a modest rebound in 2021. Tourism remains depressed, but remittances have surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels. SLV, JAM, and PAN are set to endure the steepest recessions, while GTM should contract the least due to its stable macroeconomic framework. 

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Flows Supported by External Issuance

Portfolio flows to EM stood at $17.9 bn in October. Equity and debt inflows were $6.3bn and $11.7 bn. China equities posted $4.7 bn in inflows. ...

CEEMEA Views: South Africa - Debt Rises Amid SOE Bailout

In the October MTBPS, the government increased deficit targets again. This will result in a steeper rise and higher peak of government debt. We see substantial risks to both revenue and expenditure projections. Additional budgetary support to troubled SOEs also looks likely in ‘21.

Weekly Insight: Investor relations key for EM borrowers

Many emerging markets have worked hard to improve investor relations practices, helping to support the massive expansion of the EM debt universe--from $5 trillion in 2005 to over $23 trillion in 2020.

The coming decade could see a surge in government debt ratios in a reflationary environment—a sharp contrast to the austerity bias of the last decade; high and rising debt levels make investor relations a top priority for emerging markets.

GMV: EM Trade Volumes and COVID-19

Many EM currencies have weakened sharply this year, … but the devaluation trend substantially predates COVID-19. Depreciations are large ev...

Macro Notes: Tourism - Downside Risks Dominate Outlook

Tourism will likely be among the last sectors to recover from the COVID-19 shock. The recovery has been slow and uneven, and further warning signs are emerging. We continue to expect a 60-70% drop in tourism revenues in our baseline scenario. Rising infections in the United States and Europe may require renewed lockdowns. Countries like Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey would be most affected.

China Spotlight: Implications of U.S. Sanctions on Hong Kong 

The Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) stipulates potentially highly damaging sanctions. At the extreme, the U.S. may disconnect China’s banks and corporates from the U.S. Dollar. Should the conflict escalate, we worry about unintended consequences for global markets.

Economic Views: The EM Local-Currency Bond Sell-Off

  The sell-off in local-currency government bonds has been deep. We construct a new monthly dataset of flows to local bonds, … t...

Briefing Note: Key Digital Finance Themes

This briefing note summarizes some of the key digital finance themes that emerged throughout the Annual Membership Meeting, focusing on six main topical themes that surfaced in various discussions during the weeklong virtual event, including customer-centricity, cross-border standardization, regulatory frameworks, digital identity, ethical use of data, and artificial intelligence.

Oman: Big Challenges, Forceful Response

Progress is being made on fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. The sharp fall in oil revenues will exceed the cut in public spending, leading to a large fiscal deficit. Strong adjustment and partial recovery in oil prices could make the fiscal position more sustainable. 

 

 

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