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Pakistan: Encouraging Progress 

Five months into the IMF’s $6 billion EFF program, Pakistan’s progress looks better than anticipated. • We expect official reserves to continue recovering as the current account narrows and capital inflows improve. However, gross external financing needs at around 9% of GDP warrant caution. 

Oil Market: OPEC+ Cuts Not Enough To Lift Prices 

The extra 0.5 mbd cut may not be enough to rein in projected oversupply in 2020, since the OPEC+ bloc has already made cuts well beyond the 1.2 mbd target of the previous agreement. Consequently, we expect a decline in average Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel in 2020.

Economic Views: Has the US Substituted Chinese Imports?

We have been tracking the impact of tariffs on China in detail. All rounds of tariffs had a large impact on affected imports, ... but the extent o...

IIF SFWG Letter to the NGFS re: Climate Risk Analysis and Measurement 

A letter from the IIF SFWG to the NGFS regarding climate risk analysis and measurement urging central banks and supervisors to seek alignment on approach. 

Saudi Arabia: Fiscal Consolidation Resumes 

Lower government spending has decreased medium-term fiscal vulnerabilities to lower oil prices. As the PIF is taking a leading role in public investments, capital expenditures in the budget have declined significantly. Despite fiscal headwinds, non-oil growth is expected to remain solid at 2.7%.

IIF December Global Regulatory Update 

The December 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams. 

Green Weekly Insight: Materiality matters

Sustainability accounting hits the big time; Overwhelming demand for ESG data—over 55 data/service providers compete in this $600 million market; Flows to ESG-dedicated ETFs set to top $40 billion in 2019—up over 20% from 2018 levels; New issuance of sustainable debt and loans has surged more than 40% to some $380 billion in 2019; Firms are affected differently by ESG issues—further research needed on “materiality” factors at sector and industry level    

GMV: Current Account Deficit Financing in EM

We scan key current account deficit countries across emerging markets, ... looking at where the composition of financing is a source of vulnerabilit...

Macro Notes: South Africa - The Government Must Hold the Line

The release of the 2019 MTBPS was a wake-up call for politicians, just like in 2017. The 2020 budget in February, union negotiations, and Eskom resolution are key. Moody’s is likely to downgrade South Africa’s rating to sub-IG sometime in 2020. A deep domestic market and low short-term and FX debt mitigate our concerns. But with deteriorating debt dynamics, South Africa is exposed to external shocks.

Algeria: Seeking a Change in Course 

Protests have continued since February, with the public calling for an overhaul of the ruling elite, but we expect limited change in the power structure. Economic activity will remain weak, as twin deficits persist and reserves fall. The 2020 budget envisages tightening, but deep reforms are needed. 

 

 

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