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Weekly Insight: Wall of worry

Trade tensions and fears of a global growth slowdown send term premia and bond yields sharply lower; Tariff spat weighs on trade volumes — but inflation expectations in check as importers bear the brunt of the cost; U.S. buybacks and dividends still going strong — but ebbing earnings repatriation flows could signal a decline; Emerging market debt vulnerabilities reflected in higher risk premia; To meet ambitious goals for sustainable infrastructure and the Paris commitments on climate change, low-and medium-income countries would need to spend as much as 4.5% of GDP.

Charting the Customer Journey in the Digital Age

Financial services are going digital – how does this change how financial institutions work with underserved clients? The IIF and CFI explore digital transformation and provide examples of how financial institutions are providing creative solutions for emerging customers.

Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps

We test whether Euro periphery output gaps are too narrow given weak or negative growth. If we allow for sizable 2008 GDP drops and slower trend growth since, we estimate periphery output gaps that are often twice as large as consensus numbers.

FRT Episode 36: Open Banking, Fiduciary Duty & Liquidity

FRT welcomes Mark Zelmer, former Deputy Superintendent at Canadian regulator OSFI and author of the recent UK government report on Co-operative bank. Mark joins us to discuss Canada’s upcoming adoption of Open Banking, and some of the potential impacts in fiduciary duties and for banks’ liquidity. 

Economic Views: Argentina’s External Financing Gap

Funding will be tight as the election approaches, mostly due to persistent resident capital flight. We see reserve losses even in upside scenarios that may continue after the election takes place. Argentina will likely need extended IMF support.

Weekly Insight: Trouble brewing

Slump in S&P sales momentum suggests boost from tax cuts is fading fast; Weaker U.S. loan demand as delinquencies rise; sharp drop in leveraged loan, cov-lite issuance; Bank profitability remains under pressure, notably in Europe, Japan; U.S. banks reliant on trading, fee income; Banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign risk still an issue in several advanced economies; insurers also exposed; Venezuela: opposition team signals tough line on creditors

Global Macro Views: Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO)

Small output gap estimates for the Euro periphery make little sense, because they embed an assumption of negative trend growth post-2008. We derive Euro periphery output gaps which are consistent with Phillips curve evidence and help explain why core inflation has remained so low on the periphery.

Georgia: Charting a Strong Course

Georgia has shown impressive resilience during the period of an economic slowdown in the region. The government’s Four Point Plan is expected to remove structural bottlenecks and support strong growth. However, the economy remains vulnerable to regional developments and external shocks.

IIF U.S. Regulatory Update - May 2019

Our U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Federal Reserve’s proposals on FBO requirements, FSOC’s proposed changes to nonbank designations, the NAIC International Forum, and Capitol Hill updates, among other topics. 

IIF Insurance Update - May 2019

The May edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.

 

 

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