Lebanon once again is at a crossroads. Painful measures are needed in difficult situations, and achieving fiscal sustainability, rebuilding confidence, and preserving the peg to the dollar inevitably will re-quire strong adjustment.

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product

Last year we unveiled a new measure of genuine FDI flows to EM which strips out reinvested earnings to focus only on “true” FDI flows. This measure of “true” flows has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years, a global FDI shortage that impacts emerging as well as frontier markets.

Loose monetary and fiscal policies have led to the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances. The IMF deal of $6bn will be adequate only with additional foreign inflows and significant rollovers. Decisive policy action and substantial external financing will be needed to achieve macroeconomic stability.

The IIF submitted to the Basel Committee and to representatives of the Basel Policy Development Group this letter which sets out the key messages of our advocacy and industry's recommendations for addressing these issues.

Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets triggered a reversal alert on May 14. China’s non-resident equity is in retreat, propelled by a continuation of the trade conflict. The overall outflow of capital is mainly driven by equities, as bond flows have been steady.

We do a balance of payments forecast to assess the funding gap for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a follow-up IMF program of $2 bn under benign assumptions. Political impasse is a key risk due to parliamentary elections in October.

External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk. 

The May 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Accounting, Sustainable Finance, Systemic Risk, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Argentina’s bailout involves tough fiscal adjustment. Many fiscal measures have been implemented so far, but adjustment needs to be deeper and long lasting. Some IMF programs delivered similar adjustment, but many fell short of what Argentina is aiming for. Few EMs kept a tight fiscal stance for many years.