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Global Macro Views: Currency Fair Value for Argentina and Turkey

We unveiled our EM FX valuation framework one year ago today, which signaled substantial overvaluations for Argentina and Turkey. Our model says that both currencies have converged to near fair value. But neither is cheap as current account adjustment is mostly cyclical.

Tool for reconciling text of 2019 Market Risk standard to the 2016 standard

The final revised Basel III Market Risk standard was published on January 14th in the new ‘modular’ format. We have arranged for a comparison document/tool which provides a comparison between the standards and an overview of the differences between the text of the 2019 and 2016 market risk rules.

Leverage Ratio and client cleared derivatives - Basel Consultation

The IIF, our members and other associations developed an industry response to the BCBS consultation paper (CP) on “Leverage ratio treatment of client cleared derivatives.”

CCP Equity in Resolution – Consultation on the FSB Discussion Paper

The joint associations industry have published a comment letter on the FSB Discussion Paper: “Financial resources to support CCP equity in resolution”.

Economic Views: Where does Venezuela Stand?

We assess Venezuela’s macroeconomic fundamentals after years of policy mismanagement and social turmoil. The GDP drop is on par with the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Weekly Insight: In search of mojo

After a burst of strength in 2017-18, momentum in U.S. corporate earnings and sales shows signs of fading; Growing pressure on profitability for global systemically important banks; Despite higher hedging costs, safe-haven demand continues to support foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries; Emerging market central banks load up on gold, looking to build precautionary buffers

IIF Insurance Update - January 2019

The January 2019 Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.

Regional Report: Central America and the Caribbean

We project solid growth and contained inflation this year and next. Main risks to the outlook are linked to external conditions as domestic policies have generally improved. While progress has been made to address longstanding challenges, major structural weaknesses remain.

Global Macro Views: The Fed Restarts the Wall of Money to EM

The Fed is likely to reignite a wall of money to emerging markets, and our high frequency tracking of flows already shows a sharp spike. As the hunt for yield restarts, positioning in EM is a central question. South Africa is most over-, Brazil and Russia most under-positioned.

January 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 4.1% 3m/3m sa ar in January. Uptick driven by improvement across all major indicators. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam rebound, EM Europe & Africa still contracting.



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