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February 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 2.8% 3m/3m sa ar in February. Strong improvements in financial variables insufficient to halt decline. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam weaken, EM Europe & Africa with marginal gains.

Weekly Insight: Running low

Declining equity risk premia mirror the Fed’s dovish turn in 2019—but how much further can risk-on run?; Angels falling: more U.S. issuers are at the lower end of investment grade (BBB)—and taking on more debt; More vulnerable: small unrated U.S. non-financial corporates have racked up a hefty $1.13 trillion in debt; To call or not to call: $110 billion in CoCos are redeemable through 2020

Global Macro Views: Backtesting our FX Valuation Model

We backtest our valuation signals by looking at subsequent REER moves. We find substantial predictive power in Brazil, India and South Africa,which is where our model currently signals material misalignments.

Economic Views: How Much does Venezuela Owe?

We present estimates of Venezuela’s external debt, which more than doubled in the last decade. Nearly half of Venezuela’s debt sits with PDVSA. Non-bonded debt, especially bilateral loans, is high. External debt rose sharply relative to exports, and, on this metric, is very high relative to peers.

Regional Report: Frontier Asia

Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Positive Momentum Continues

Portfolio inflows to Emerging Markets were $26 billion in February. Equity and debt inflows reached $14 billion and $12 billion, respectively. Net capital flows strongly rebounded into positive territory in January.

IIF Weekly Insight: Hold or Fold?

Despite hopes for a continued “v-shaped” equity market recovery, investors are hedging their bets; Highly procyclical U.S. fiscal stance in sharp contrast to other mature economies; “Shadow banking” on the rise around the world—though not so much in the U.S.; Record pace of buybacks by S&P500 sparks more debate about their merits

FRT Episode 26: Blockchain Development and Use Cases

Mercina Tillemann, Chief Operating Officer at the Global Blockchain Business Council (GBBC) shares her insights on the application of distributed ledg...

Global Macro Views: The Engine Room of our FX Fair Value Model

Our EM FX fair value estimates update prompted lots of questions on the inner workings of our model which we lay out in a series of equations and a summary table in this piece.

Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey - 2018Q4

EM bank lending conditions tightened less in 2018Q4. Access to trade finance resumed easing in Q4, as other lending categories tightened by less. EM Europe saw their conditions improve the most, while EM Asia began tightening, so that only SSA saw easing. Respondents expect easing in lending conditions for 2019Q1.

 

 

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