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ASEAN Economic Views: Investment Driven Current Account Deficits

External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk. 

May 2019 Global Regulatory Update

The May 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Accounting, Sustainable Finance, Systemic Risk, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Economic Views: Can Argentina Continue Adjusting?

Argentina’s bailout involves tough fiscal adjustment. Many fiscal measures have been implemented so far, but adjustment needs to be deeper and long lasting. Some IMF programs delivered similar adjustment, but many fell short of what Argentina is aiming for. Few EMs kept a tight fiscal stance for many years.

 FRT Episode 34: Consumer Data Rights  

Douglas Elliott, Partner at Oliver Wyman in the Finance & Risk/Public Policy practice, joins FRT to discuss the policy debate around privacy and consumer data rights, and the specific challenges for the financial sector.

Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey - 2019Q1

EM bank lending conditions tightened less in 2019Q1. Improvements in each sub-index drove the uptick. EM Europe and EM Asia began to witness easing, while LatAm and MENA remained in tightening territory. Respondents expect easing in lending conditions for 2019Q2.

IIF responds to FSOC proposal on nonbank systemic risk designation

The IIF has submitted a response letter to the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which is chaired by the U.S. Treasury, regarding their proposed interpretative guidance on the supervision and regulation of certain nonbank financial companies. 

Weekly Insight: Speed Bumps

U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails—except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets—and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019

Global Macro Views: The EM Positioning Problem

We unveiled a new EM positioning database late last year. Here we provide a further breakdown into equities and bonds, which allow us to zero in on the biggest EM positioning overhangs. The largest overhang, South Africa, is due to both in equal measure.

GCC Real Estate Developments: Still Searching for a Turnaround

Oversupply and weak demand have weighed on real estate prices since 2014. Vulnerability stems from an unrealistic economic model amplified by adverse external factors, with detrimental effects to growth and financial stability. However, policy responses may slow the pace of future price declines.

Frontier LatAm: Assessing External Vulnerability

Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm remain wide and are largely dependent on remittances and oil prices. While high FDI helps cover external financing needs, debt buildups have been significant in some countries, increasing external vulnerability amid limited buffers.

 

 

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