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GCC: Optimism and Caution Are Both Warranted

GCC authorities took forceful steps to mitigate the fallout from COVID-19, and we expect a modest recovery in 2021 supported by higher oil prices. However, the region confronts an ongoing exodus of expats and decelerating growth of capital stock, underscoring the need for broad structural reforms.

Economic Views: China’s Commodity Demand

We look into China’s demand for commodity imports, … one of the main determinants of global commodity prices. We build import volume ...

Uzbekistan: Emerging From the COVID-19 Shock 

While the pandemic hit the economy hard, timely measures have limited the health and economic effects. Uzbekistan entered the pandemic with strong fundamentals and policy buffers. We expect real GDP to pick up to 4.5% in 2021 from 1.6% in 2020.

Green Weekly Insight: Beyond Climate Change

While climate change is now top of the policy agenda in the U.S., broader environmental issues are also in the global spotlight; Developed markets score higher on environmental protection: France, Germany and Denmark lead the way; Emerging markets tend to fare less well on environmental protection: India, China, and Turkey score lowest. That said…;
…mature markets can “export” environmental threats by importing goods and services that harm the environment elsewhere

Global Macro Views: The 2021 EM Flows Tantrum

We worried about a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum back in January. Our focus was that 2021 would see a big rise in GDP as the economy reopens, &he...

From Open Banking to Open Data and Beyond 

The rapid pace of technological innovation has quickly overtaken the open banking models that we see today. The combination of current digitalization trends (amplified by the experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic) and the blurring of traditional sectoral boundaries presents challenges for policymakers and market participants alike, such that open banking needs further renewal, even as it is still taking hold.

LatAm Views: Mexico - Virtual Trip Notes 

The growth rebound will likely be modest, with positive spillovers from the US reflecting primarily on the current account. The government remains committed to fiscal austerity, increased global financial volatility could impede further monetary easing, and major institutional changes are unlikely.

China Spotlight: Foreign Investments in Onshore Bonds

Foreign investors are aggressively buying Chinese bonds but are concentrated in sovereign and quasi-sovereigns. Bond inflows in 2020 were driven by index inclusion, attractive local yields, and a strengthening RMB. This note discusses the allocations of foreign investment and the type of inflows.

Macro Notes: Have Drivers Behind EM Spreads Changed?

EM are traditionally exposed to swings in global risk sentiment and reflation concerns. However, the recent increase in DM rates has had a muted effect on EM credit so far. This is in stark contrast to the taper tantrum when EM spreads reacted more strongly. We also acknowledge that the current taper tantrum-like episode is still in an early stage. Most exposed are EM with large funding requirements and shallow domestic markets.

Economic Views: EM Fiscal Vulnerability

We study fiscal risk, looking at solvency and rollover metrics. Under low rates for long many EMs could stabilize debt ratios, … while avoi...
 

 

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