Our global growth tracker has fallen to its lowest levels since 2015, driven by a sharp drop in manufacturing sentiment around the world. The evidence points to normal ups and downs in global manufacturing, with some early signs that hard-hit places like Germany are turning up.

Consumption-driven growth has led to increasing imbalances and inflation. Ad-hoc policy changes weigh on sentiment, undermining new investment. Further stimulus would pose risks to macroeconomic stability and outlook. 

Argentina’s public debt will decline markedly, if fiscal consolidation is large and long-lasting. Fiscal easing could critically affect debt levels, and complicate refinancing of maturing debt. Debt vulnerability will remain high for years.

EM Growth Tracker at 3.8% 3m/3m SAAR in May. Business and financial conditions drag growth down. Imports appear to have bottomed out, improving trade.

The June 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on Advocacy on Addressing Market Fragmentation, Evaluation of Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) Reforms and the Basel III Finalization & Cumulative Capital Impact Study.

Analysts begin to price in trade war impact on corporate earnings—but estimates are still pretty upbeat; Emerging markets: how long will the boost from lower global rates last?; Risk-return tradeoff on carry trades looking more attractive; Convergence in the air for Euro Area bond spreads; LIBOR transition—some progress on moving towards new reference rates, but asset managers lag

We have estimated Ukraine’s financing gap at $2 bn (1.5% of GDP). A key ingredient is a stable current account despite growth recovery. This is due to a favorable shift in the current account toward the EU. Domestic politics aside, a key risk is the growth slowdown in Europe.