Portfolio flows to EM stood at -$2.9 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were -$8.9 bn and $6.0 bn. Chinese equities posted $0.7 bn in outflows. ...

Russia stopped publishing some key statistics since February 2022. The authorities say the measure is to protect Russia from sanctions. Hidden data make independent economic analysis challenging. In the near term, it allows the authorities to control the narrative. It also incentivizes institutions to embellish reporting to the center. With time, accurate macro-analysis will become nearly impossible. Russia’s observance of the IMF’s SDDS appears sufficient for now.

Weak consumption due to zero covid is weighing on growth, … as are a housing slowdown and increasing global recession risk.   We see growth of 2.6% ...

Debt default risk has gone up substantially, as the financing gap has increased.

This GMV updates our exchange rate fair value estimates. Our focus in these updates is usually concentrated on EM, … but Russia’s invasion of Ukrain...

At around $1.3 trillion, ESG loans account for over 30% of the total ESG debt universe. Global ESG loan issuance has soared from less than $40 billion in 2013 to $265 billion by Aug. 2022, mostly due to increased interest in sustainability-linked loans. ESG loan markets offer great potential for mobilizing climate finance--including for emerging and developing economies.

Russia’s current account surplus reached $180 bn by end-August. Well on track to hit the forecast of $250-$280 bn surplus in 2022, followed by a current account surplus of about $80 bn in 2023. Russian banks are accumulating FX as the BoR is under sanctions. Due to the risk of further sanctions, Russia is keen to de-dollarize. Despite the creative schemes, progress has been limited so far.

We document China’s role in external funding to frontier markets. Many received more than 0.5% of GDP annually in the mid-2010s, ... but flows slowe...

The upcoming presidential election has become more contested. Yet despite rising transition risk, we do not expect full-blown institutional crisis, and a relatively smooth transfer of power could lift investor confidence. Regardless of who wins, the overall economic framework should stay unchanged.

Energy supply shortages will weigh on near-term growth prospects for the CEE-4 region. Covid-driven supply chain stress is off its peak, but a return to pre-Covid norms will take time. The CEE-4 region could help make global supply chains more resilient if the region can attract more FDI.

The COVID shock caused substantial supply chain disruptions, … which spilled into unprecedented delivery delays around the world, … as well as large...

Emerging markets are playing a key role in shaping the global sustainable finance agenda this year, ahead of COP27 in Egypt and the G20 Summit in Indonesia in November.

Russia’s fiscal accounts continue to benefit from high commodity prices. Debt-to-GDP stands at 17%, and the NWF fund is 8% of GDP in 1H2022. However, ~40% of federal budget revenues come from oil and gas. Revenues will fall due to energy wars and the EU oil embargo in 2023. We expect a federal budget deficit of about 2% in 2022 and 3% in 2023.

We expect oil prices to average $101/b in 2022 and $85/b in 2023. However, the range of uncertainty remains large, including the extent of production cuts in Russia and in major OPEC members, the impact of the G7 oil price cap, and the prospects of nuclear agreement with Iran.

The September 2022 edition of the Global Regulatory Update provides targeted updates on current workstreams and events

After Russia invaded Ukraine, emerging markets were very resilient at first. Rising commodity prices meant the war was a positive terms of trade shoc...

Following four quarters of consecutive decline, the global debt-to-GDP ratio is edging back up, approaching 350% of GDP in Q2 2022. We expect the global debt ratio to reach 352% of GDP by end-2022.

ASEAN-5 is highly dependent on China for exports. The region is also an important indicator of global activity. External demand remained surprisingly robust in 1H2022. However, we expect some deceleration in 2H2022. China’s slowdown remains the key risk for ASEAN-5.