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Publications

Regional Report: Frontier Asia

Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Positive Momentum Continues

Portfolio inflows to Emerging Markets were $26 billion in February. Equity and debt inflows reached $14 billion and $12 billion, respectively. Net capital flows strongly rebounded into positive territory in January.

IIF Weekly Insight: Hold or Fold?

Despite hopes for a continued “v-shaped” equity market recovery, investors are hedging their bets; Highly procyclical U.S. fiscal stance in sharp contrast to other mature economies; “Shadow banking” on the rise around the world—though not so much in the U.S.; Record pace of buybacks by S&P500 sparks more debate about their merits

FRT Episode 26: Blockchain Development and Use Cases

Mercina Tillemann, Chief Operating Officer at the Global Blockchain Business Council (GBBC) shares her insights on the application of distributed ledg...

Global Macro Views: The Engine Room of our FX Fair Value Model

Our EM FX fair value estimates update prompted lots of questions on the inner workings of our model which we lay out in a series of equations and a summary table in this piece.

Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey - 2018Q4

EM bank lending conditions tightened less in 2018Q4. Access to trade finance resumed easing in Q4, as other lending categories tightened by less. EM Europe saw their conditions improve the most, while EM Asia began tightening, so that only SSA saw easing. Respondents expect easing in lending conditions for 2019Q1.

MENAP: Status Quo Is Not Enough

Average growth in MENAP is foreseen to decelerate slightly to 2.2% in 2019—below the population growth. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region. Non-resident capital inflows to MENAP should rise marginally this year to $189 billion.

Economic Views: China's Retaliation in the Trade War

China’s imports of US goods fell sharply last year, in response to new US tariffs on Chinese goods. We attribute the decline to a retaliatory 25% tariff, but data suggest non-tariff measures were also used. China substituted certain US imports markedly, in favor of countries like Russia and Brazil.

IIF Cloud Computing Paper (Part 3)

This final paper in the IIF 3-Part series on Cloud focuses specifically on the unique set of challenges associated with Cloud Service Providers (CSPs).

CEEMEA Views: South Africa - The 2019 Budget Leaves a Narrow Path

South Africa’s Budget 2019 includes adjustments, which are markedly offset by sizable bailout funding for Eskom, leaving the government’s deficit targets to widen compared to those presented last October. The worsening fiscal position and rising public debt are key risks for the credit rating.

 

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