The IIF submitted to the Basel Committee and to representatives of the Basel Policy Development Group this letter which sets out the key messages of our advocacy and industry's recommendations for addressing these issues.

Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets triggered a reversal alert on May 14. China’s non-resident equity is in retreat, propelled by a continuation of the trade conflict. The overall outflow of capital is mainly driven by equities, as bond flows have been steady.

We do a balance of payments forecast to assess the funding gap for Ukraine. Ukraine needs a follow-up IMF program of $2 bn under benign assumptions. Political impasse is a key risk due to parliamentary elections in October.

External imbalances are headwinds facing the fast-growing economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. We have a constructive view of the CADs in these economies as investment has been an important contributor. Reliance on portfolio and other foreign inflows is the key risk. 

The May 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Accounting, Sustainable Finance, Systemic Risk, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Argentina’s bailout involves tough fiscal adjustment. Many fiscal measures have been implemented so far, but adjustment needs to be deeper and long lasting. Some IMF programs delivered similar adjustment, but many fell short of what Argentina is aiming for. Few EMs kept a tight fiscal stance for many years.

EM bank lending conditions tightened less in 2019Q1. Improvements in each sub-index drove the uptick. EM Europe and EM Asia began to witness easing, while LatAm and MENA remained in tightening territory. Respondents expect easing in lending conditions for 2019Q2.

U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails—except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets—and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019