We have unveiled a new database on EM real money positioning. We begin to add bank-intermediated flows to our database, which comove with real money flows in Turkey and Argentina. The EM positioning overhang may be greater than initially assumed.

The March 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board, current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Venezuela’s GDP decline is nearly unprecedented, as is the collapse of oil output, its main export. The initial impact of US sanctions was manageable, but history suggests they will have severe effects. Recoveries from oil output collapses tend to be fast, making higher oil revenue feasible if policies change.

Since submitting the industry response letter for consultation the Discussion Paper (DP): “Financial resources to support CCP equity in resolution", the industry working group has also developed an Incentives Analysis of recovery and resolution tools.

The industry comment letter was submitted to the BCBS on March 14.

Eking out the late-cycle rally; Sustained improvement in external funding conditions would be a boon for highly indebted EMs; After debt relief, many low-income countries have seen debt/GDP ratios rise sharply in recent years; Rising pension obligations burden mature economies—and some emerging markets as well

The February/March edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.