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Macro Notes: COVID-19 Policy Response in Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are being hit by a combination of macro shocks. The key challenge is to avoid medium-term growth being impacted. A way to accomplish this is to use available monetary and fiscal space. Flexible exchange rates can and should act as automatic stabilizers. As COVID-19 continues to spread, we worry that more will be needed.

IIF Insurance Update - April 2020 

The April edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

Economic Views: EM Fiscal Risk under COVID-19

The COVID-19 crisis will widen EM fiscal deficits, … raising risk for those facing high borrowing needs, … or relying heavily on bon...

Oil Market: Substantial Cuts In Production Will Halt Falling Oil Prices 

The OPEC+ bloc agreed to cut oil production by a record 9.7mbd. Assuming full compliance, we expect Brent crude to average $40/bbl in 2020. Cuts will last through April 2022, at lower levels. Major non-OPEC+ producers will cut by up to 3.5mbd. Inventories should peak in Q2 and then drop in H2. 

LatAm Views: Deep Recession 

COVID-19 has affected Latin America through multiple channels. Pre-existing challenges and increased exposure put the region in a difficult position. We project a deep recession this year amid a sudden stop in capital flows and limited policy space. 

 

Green Weekly Insight: ESG in the Time of COVID-19

As public health restrictions wear on, market assess how stimulus and support measures might shape the recovery; ESG-friendly equities and corporate bonds continue to outperform their peers in major global markets, including the U.S.; ESG-dedicated ETFs saw net inflows of over $3.7 billion in March, with a strong upswing in early April; A sustainable way to finance COVID-19 costs: social bond issuance has surged to near $7 billion in early April

FRT Episode 64: Trade, Technology and COVID with Kati Suominen

Kati Suominen returns to FRT, discussing how the COVID-19 experience will accelerate technology adoption and overhaul trade patterns.

IIF letter to IMF, World Bank, OECD and Paris Club on Debt of LICs

On behalf of the IIF membership—over 450 global firms across the financial services industry—President and CEO Tim Adams expresses our grave concern about the threat to debt sustainability posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. 
 

Capital Flows Report: Sudden Stop in Emerging Markets

We revise global GDP growth in 2020 down significantly to -2.8%. This means that the COVID-19 shock is worse than the GFC in 2009. The IIF’s tracking of portfolio flows shows an unprecedented outflow. Our projections show some risk of further outflows in the 2nd quarter.

Economic Views: EM Funding Needs in the COVID-19 Shock

EM funding needs are still high despite current account adjustment.

 

 

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