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Global Macro Views: The EM Positioning Overhang

The Fed has shifted dovish and China-US trade tensions have abated, ... but EM currencies – after a brief rally in January – have been q...

Economic Views: A Positive Turn in Trade

Trade tensions raised fears of slowing global trade. We develop a model to track US trade in real time, based on detailed weekly customs information. The picture is more positive than in Asian data, as US trade stabilized in real terms in early 2019. We think that global trade fears are overblown.

FRT Episode 27: APEC Data Ecosystem

At the APEC Business Advisory Council meetings in Atlanta, JC Parrenas (Mizuho) and Bob Trojan (Token Insights) join FRT to discuss APEC initiatives t...

February 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 2.8% 3m/3m sa ar in February. Strong improvements in financial variables insufficient to halt decline. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam weaken, EM Europe & Africa with marginal gains.

Weekly Insight: Running low

Declining equity risk premia mirror the Fed’s dovish turn in 2019—but how much further can risk-on run?; Angels falling: more U.S. issuers are at the lower end of investment grade (BBB)—and taking on more debt; More vulnerable: small unrated U.S. non-financial corporates have racked up a hefty $1.13 trillion in debt; To call or not to call: $110 billion in CoCos are redeemable through 2020

Global Macro Views: Backtesting our FX Valuation Model

We backtest our valuation signals by looking at subsequent REER moves. We find substantial predictive power in Brazil, India and South Africa,which is where our model currently signals material misalignments.

Economic Views: How Much does Venezuela Owe?

We present estimates of Venezuela’s external debt, which more than doubled in the last decade. Nearly half of Venezuela’s debt sits with PDVSA. Non-bonded debt, especially bilateral loans, is high. External debt rose sharply relative to exports, and, on this metric, is very high relative to peers.

Regional Report: Frontier Asia

Growth momentum continues, albeit at a slower pace in 2019 and 2020. Capital inflows will cushion pressure from weaker current accounts. Fiscal deficits and trade tensions are the main risks to the outlook.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Positive Momentum Continues

Portfolio inflows to Emerging Markets were $26 billion in February. Equity and debt inflows reached $14 billion and $12 billion, respectively. Net capital flows strongly rebounded into positive territory in January.

IIF Weekly Insight: Hold or Fold?

Despite hopes for a continued “v-shaped” equity market recovery, investors are hedging their bets; Highly procyclical U.S. fiscal stance in sharp contrast to other mature economies; “Shadow banking” on the rise around the world—though not so much in the U.S.; Record pace of buybacks by S&P500 sparks more debate about their merits

 

 

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