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GMV: COVID-19 Capital Flow Exodus from EM

The COVID-19 shock has meant a sharp sudden stop for emerging markets, with our daily tracking of non-resident portfolio outflows at unprecedented levels.

Update Oil Exporters: External and Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices Set to Decline 

Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price, around $40/bbl in 2020, is the lowest among major oil exporters. While Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external breakeven prices should decline due to a cut in non-priority spending and a fall in imports, fiscal breakeven prices remain well above $60 in much of MENA. 

AATG Episode 6: Janine Guillot, CEO, Sustainability Accounting Standards Board Foundation (SASB)

Janine Guillot, the CEO of, Sustainability Accounting Standards Board Foundation (SASB), Janine Guillot, joins the latest episode of our “All about the Green” podcast. Speaking with the IIF Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, Sonja Gibbs.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: The COVID-19 Cliff

March saw the largest portfolio outflows from EM. Equity and debt were -$52.4 bn and -$31.0 bn, respectively. Net capital flows to EM reached $0.2 bn in February.

FRT Episode 63: Doing Digital with Chris Skinner

Acclaimed author Chris Skinner joins FRT to discuss his latest book, Doing Digital, profiling the digitalization efforts, challenges and success stories of JP Morgan, BBVA, ING, DBS & China Merchants Bank.

Macro Notes: South Africa - In Need of IMF Program

We believe multilateral support will be critical for South Africa going forward. Moody’s rating downgrade will likely trigger further capital outflows in 2020Q2. This will continue the pressure on the ZAR, which we have flagged as overvalued. Economic contraction and higher funding costs will likely make debt unsustainable.

China Spotlight: Non-Performing Loans And Their Disposal

China’s NPL ratio has been remarkably stable amid slowing economic growth, largely because many NPLs have been written off. Without these write-offs, China’s NPL ratio would be at 4.85% today instead of the actual 1.86%. More institutions and instruments have been introduced to clean up NPLs. 

Economic Views: Scorecard of EM COVID-19 Preparedness

We rank EM on preparedness to handle COVID-19, beyond the scope there may be to ease macro policies.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: Canada and UK Discussion Papers

This short briefing note analyzes the recent Bank of Canada and Bank of England discussion papers on potential Central Bank Digital Currencies.

MENA Update: Twin Shocks -- COVID-19 and Plunging Oil Prices

Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits. 

 

 

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