The COVID-19 shock has meant a sharp sudden stop for emerging markets, with our daily tracking of non-resident portfolio outflows at unprecedented levels.
Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price, around $40/bbl in 2020, is the lowest among major oil exporters. While Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external breakeven prices should decline due to a cut in non-priority spending and a fall in imports, fiscal breakeven prices remain well above $60 in much of MENA.
Janine Guillot, the CEO of, Sustainability Accounting Standards Board Foundation (SASB), Janine Guillot, joins the latest episode of our “All about the Green” podcast. Speaking with the IIF Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, Sonja Gibbs.
March saw the largest portfolio outflows from EM. Equity and debt were -$52.4 bn and -$31.0 bn, respectively. Net capital flows to EM reached $0.2 bn in February.
Acclaimed author Chris Skinner joins FRT to discuss his latest book, Doing Digital, profiling the digitalization efforts, challenges and success stories of JP Morgan, BBVA, ING, DBS & China Merchants Bank.
We believe multilateral support will be critical for South Africa going forward. Moody’s rating downgrade will likely trigger further capital outflows in 2020Q2. This will continue the pressure on the ZAR, which we have flagged as overvalued. Economic contraction and higher funding costs will likely make debt unsustainable.
China’s NPL ratio has been remarkably stable amid slowing economic growth, largely because many NPLs have been written off. Without these write-offs, China’s NPL ratio would be at 4.85% today instead of the actual 1.86%. More institutions and instruments have been introduced to clean up NPLs.
We rank EM on preparedness to handle COVID-19, beyond the scope there may be to ease macro policies.
This short briefing note analyzes the recent Bank of Canada and Bank of England discussion papers on potential Central Bank Digital Currencies.
Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits.