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MENA Capital Flows: Strong Inflows Cover Looming Risks

Non-resident capital inflows to the MENA region are projected to rise from $165bn last year to $200bn in 2019 before moderating to $173bn in 2020. With the increasing inflows, inclusion into global indices, and ongoing reforms, the MENA region is becoming more prominent on the EM investment map. 
 

Weekly Insight: Risk on—for now

Merits of further monetary policy easing under the microscope; Rising populism—whether due to economic or socio-cultural factors—is the primary driver of global policy uncertainty; Limited scope for monetary policy to address declining business confidence, as social unrest is often a root cause; Frontier market debt tops 115% of GDP in Q2 2019—up by 20 percentage points over the past decade.  The exceptions thus stand out—including Kazakhstan which has both low valuations and declining debt levels.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Solid Ground

Portfolio flows to Emerging Markets were $22.5 bn in October. Equity and debt flows were $1.2 bn and $21.3 bn, respectively. Net capital...

GMV: Reverse-Engineering the Euro Zone NAIRU

In last week’s Global Macro Views we flagged rising Euro zone deflation risk, ... because the weaker German outlook risks upsetting a delicate...

Frontier Markets Debt Monitor: Growing Vulnerabilities

Frontier market debt hit $3.2 trillion in Q2 2019, up by over $630 billion since Q2 2016.  While this marks the slowest quarterly growth in debt since 2015, it also puts total frontier debt/GDP at a record high of over 115%. We have added Republic of Congo, Gambia, and Mozambique to our frontier market debt monitor database. 

Macro Notes: CEE - Robust Growth and Limited Spillovers

Growth in the Euro area slowed considerably in 2018 and 2019H1. CEE countries are highly integrated into European value chains. We already see evidence of a slowdown in industrial production. However, domestic demand continues to support robust growth. In case of further shocks, policy space is not universally available.

Economic Views: Growth in China Remains Stable

Activity in China slowed markedly in the first half of 2018, but softened just marginally when trade tensions picked up. Policy support to credit-intensive sectors largely offset tariffs, but investment in high value-added tradable sectors suffered. Scope for more policy support remains if growth falls further.

IIF October Insurance Update

Topics addressed:
*IIF Response to IAIS Big Data Analytics Draft Issues Paper
*IIF Insurance Regulatory Committee Meeting
*IIF Cyber Risk Roundtable 
*December 6 IIF Insurance Dialogue, London, UK 
*IIF LIBOR Transition Roundtable 

IIF Response to IAIS Issues Paper on Big Data Analytics 


On October 16, 2019 the IIF responded to the IAIS Draft Issues Paper on the Use of Big Data Analytics in Insurance. 

FRT Episode 50: FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams

FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams joins IIF CEO Tim Adams and Brad Carr to discuss the roles for banks and supervisors in enabling innovative solutions for customers and promoting greater financial inclusion.

 

 

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