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CEEMEA Views: Turkey - Growth Concerns Shape Policies

Authorities aim at boosting capital spending through the credit channel. Turkey’s external vulnerabilities have been somewhat reduced in 2019. Credit growth buffered the economy from weaker growth last year. Global recession risks pose significant challenges for growth in 2020. 

Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs

We forecast falling current account deficits in many EMs, … but do not expect external amortization to drop much. Total funding needs will ...

FRT Episode 61: The G20 Digital Agenda And A Look At Potential COVID-19 Impact

The G20 put payments, regtech, and bigtech in finance on the spring action plan for the FSB with data policy and the future of money forming the context.  Meanwhile, impacts of the new corona virus seized attention as the official sector readied response plans. 

MENA Oil Exporters: Lower Oil Prices Aggravate Fiscal Strains

We have lowered our average Brent oil price assumption by $10/bbl to $54/bbl for 2020 due to lower global demand for oil. Such a decline exposes significant vulnerabilities among MENA oil-exporting countries, especially Oman and Bahrain. External and fiscal positions are expected to weaken.

Digital Identities in Financial Services Part 3: The Business Opportunity for Digital Identity

This is the third of a three-part series. Previous publications: Digital IDs in Financial Services Part 1: Embedding in AML Frameworks Digital...

Green Weekly Insight: Is Your Business Strategy "Climate Resilient"?

Financial institutions disclose more information about the resilience of their business strategies under different climate scenarios than firms in other sectors -- though there is still significant room for improvement.

Global Macro Views: COVID-19 and Global Growth

We made our “no recession” call last year with a high degree of conviction, ... because data pointed to an end of the inventory overhang...

Macro Notes: South Africa’s Budget Promises Wage Bill Cuts

South Africa’s 2020 budget was well-received by financial markets. The proposed adjustment is largely driven by cuts to the wage bill. Savings are just enough to offset weaker revenue due to weak growth. Thus, public debt is still set to increase to ~70% of GDP by FY22/23. Key risks remain low growth, union resistance, and struggling SOEs.

Economic Views: EM Current Account Vulnerability

We update our framework to track EM current accounts. Sluggish imports are reducing deficits in many countries, … a sign that domestic dema...

Sustainable Finance Policy & Regulation: The Case for Greater International Alignment

Given the global nature of the climate change agenda, global leadership is essential to encourage the development of well-aligned and considered regulatory and supervisory frameworks across jurisdictions. However, there are already signs of fragmentation in several policy areas.

 

 

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