Ukraine’s new agreement with the IMF is critical for external financing, even though recent flows into domestic bonds have alleviated pressure. The agreement signals confidence in ongoing reform efforts to markets, and will lead to renewed investor interest in local government bonds.

Five months into the IMF’s $6 billion EFF program, Pakistan’s progress looks better than anticipated. • We expect official reserves to continue recovering as the current account narrows and capital inflows improve. However, gross external financing needs at around 9% of GDP warrant caution. 

The extra 0.5 mbd cut may not be enough to rein in projected oversupply in 2020, since the OPEC+ bloc has already made cuts well beyond the 1.2 mbd target of the previous agreement. Consequently, we expect a decline in average Brent oil prices to $60 a barrel in 2020.

Lower government spending has decreased medium-term fiscal vulnerabilities to lower oil prices. As the PIF is taking a leading role in public investments, capital expenditures in the budget have declined significantly. Despite fiscal headwinds, non-oil growth is expected to remain solid at 2.7%.

The December 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams. 

Sustainability accounting hits the big time; Overwhelming demand for ESG data—over 55 data/service providers compete in this $600 million market; Flows to ESG-dedicated ETFs set to top $40 billion in 2019—up over 20% from 2018 levels; New issuance of sustainable debt and loans has surged more than 40% to some $380 billion in 2019; Firms are affected differently by ESG issues—further research needed on “materiality” factors at sector and industry level