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GMV: Crisis versus Secular Stagnation EMs

Growth has slowed sharply across many emerging markets, ... a phenomenon we have been calling “secular stagnation” in EM.  Drivin...

IIF Response to IAIS Consultation on Liquidity Risk Management 

The IIF has responded to the IAIS Application Paper on Liquidity Risk Management, which was released for public consultation on November 19, 2019. 

Macro Notes: Sub-Saharan Africa’s Eurobond Risks

Government debt in Sub-Saharan Africa has risen markedly in recent years. This is partly due to issuance of Eurobonds in a low interest rate environment. Debt amortization will peak in 2024-25, while financing needs remain high. As a result, these countries will need to attract significant non-resident capital. Tightening of global financial conditions could increase debt costs substantially.

Economic Views: The Credit-Growth Nexus in India

Credit and growth slowed significantly in India, ... in the context of a severe shadow-banking shock. We study similar past credit crunch episodes...

FRT Episode 57: Basel Committee Open Banking Report

We discuss the recent Basel Committee report on Open Banking and APIs with lead author Linda Jeng.

Weekly Insight: Too frothy?

Equity valuations soared in 2019, as loose financial conditions drove price/earnings ratios higher; By sector, tech and consumer discretionary have seen the biggest valuation gains, health care, banks and utilities have lagged; Early U.S. bank earnings have largely beat expectations, with particular strength in trading revenues, upbeat guidance; Global debt hits record of 322% of GDP in Q319; refinancing this year will top $19 trillion across mature and EMs; Electric vehicle sales growing rapidly alongside declining input costs; market share seen rising to 30% by 2030

GMV: How Much Labor Market Slack Remains?

The US unemployment rate has fallen to historically low levels, ... even as there is little indication that underlying inflation is picking up. ...

Macro Notes: Growth Fails to Drive Income Convergence in SSA

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to display stronger growth than other EMs. However, this has not resulted in meaningful real convergence for most. Continued high, though declining, population growth is partly responsible. Higher productivity growth is necessary to improve living standards quicker. Rising indebtedness represents the key risk to the medium-term outlook.

China Views: Performance of Private Companies vs. SOEs 

China’s SOEs are often criticized for being inefficient and highly leveraged, but the performance gap between SOEs and privately-owned companies is smaller than many think. SOEs gained advantages during the Supply-side Reform, while private companies have lost more to the trade war. 

Economic Views: Risk of Social Tensions in EM

Social and political stress afflicted EM last year, … absent macroeconomic vulnerability in some cases. We introduce scores of social stres...
 

 

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