FROG s ( F rivolously R elated O utput G aps) are oddly small output gap estimates, "¦ which reflect potential GDP bending down to meet years of weak
In a Global Macro Views in December we introduced BoP Nowcasts, "¦ which map commodity prices and capital flows into daily forecasts for the 2018 BoP.
Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a
China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f