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Global Macro Views: FROGs vs Labor Markets

FROG s ( F rivolously R elated O utput G aps) are oddly small output gap estimates, "¦ which reflect potential GDP bending down to meet years of weak

IIF Flows Alert: Downside of the roller coaster

EM portfolio outflows sharpest since the 2016 U.S. presidential election Outflows were concentrated in equities; EM bonds flows have been hit less har

Joint Associations Comments on Funding Strategies

The associations generally support the FSB's proposed guidance but suggest a few enhancements and clarifications. In particular, the associations reco

Joint Associations Comments on Principles on Bail-in Execution

The associations appreciate the FSB's awareness that the operationalization of bail-in requires not only banks but also authorities and providers of m

Hydrocarbon Exporters: Breakeven Oil Prices Have Declined

In this note, we examine the evolution of breakeven oil prices in the six GCC countries, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. We expect extern

Global Macro Views: BoP Nowcasts for Systemic EMs

In a Global Macro Views in December we introduced BoP Nowcasts, "¦ which map commodity prices and capital flows into daily forecasts for the 2018 BoP.

Economic Views: Turkey - Growth Concerns Could Weigh on Fiscal Prudence

Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a

China Spotlight: The Reversal of Financial Flows

China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f

Weekly Insight: Buzz Building

"¢'  ' Rising global bond yields rattle the "risk-on" consensus "¢'  ' Despite risks, the outlook remains constructive for EM flows-particularly under

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: A Happy Start to the New Year

Non-resident portfolio inflows to EMs rose to a 7-month high of $30 billion in January, with over half ($16.5 billion) to debt' markets. EM Asia and L

 

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