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Sticky Notes: September 21, 2018

Scott Farnham updates on this week's U.S.-China trade news, and looks at President Trump's love/hate relationship wit

Tanzania: Growth Remains Strong

An acceleration in investment should lift real GDP growth to 7.4% in 2018. Fiscal and current account deficits are likely to widen this year but remai

Weekly Insight: Double Trouble

Further escalation in trade tensions, growing evidence of a global liquidity drawdown Upward revisions to U.S. corporate earnings, but less optimism o

Economic Views: India's External Vulnerability

The Indian rupee is the worst-performing currency in Asia this year. We assess whether this reflects heightened external vulnerability, comparing risk metrics in the run-up to the taper tantrum vs. now. The current account deficit will widen, but not to 2012 levels. Reserves relative to external financing needs are higher now. External vulnerability persists but is less acute than in 2012.

Capital Flows to Frontier Markets: Bracing for Spillovers

Overall non-resident capital flows to FMs are estimated to rise modestly in 2018. However, the bulk of the upswing reflects a strong rebound in flows

Economic Views: China - How Much is China Slowing?

The EM sell-off is abating as the worst FX overvaluations have shrunk, but risks related to China remain in the context of the ongoing trade war. W

Liability and Consumer Protection in Open Banking

Where "˜Open Banking' frameworks are being developed for the policy objectives of promoting competition and empowering consumers, these are worthwhile

Capital Flows to MENA Region - Resilient to the EM turmoil?

Higher oil prices, doll

August 2018 EM Growth Tracker

Our EM Growth Tracker fell to 4.1% (3m/3m sa ar) in August, 0.2 pp lower than July; the lowest since April 2016 . Revising last month's figures, July'

Frontier Markets Scorecard: Vulnerabilities in Focus

Against the backdrop of rising rates, a stronger USD and more volatile capital flows, Bahrain, Pakistan, Zambia, Ghana and Tunisia are currently among

 

 

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