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MENA: Forward Progress Faces Major Hurdles 

We expect growth in the MENA region to slow to 1.4% in 2019 from 1.8% in 2018, dragged down by the deep recession in Iran and the compliance with the OPEC + deal. This aggregate picture, however, hides considerable heterogeneity in economic paths across the region.

China Views: Supply Chains in Asia

US tariffs on China have the potential to switch production to other countries in the region.  We use input-output tables to see which countrie...

LatAm Views – Brazil’s Reform Agenda 

Pension reform has improved Brazil’s growth prospects amid an anemic recovery.

IIF October Global Regulatory Update

The October 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Economic Views: Are EM Bond Investors Benchmarked?

Benchmark indices are a factor affecting flows to EM, … especially as passive investment grows more popular. We measure how benchmarked EM ...

FRT Episode 49: Previewing the IIF Annual Membership Meeting

We preview the exciting speakers and panel discussions that will feature in the IIF Annual Membership Meeting, to be held in Washington DC on October 16-19.

 

 

Digital Identities in Financial Services Part 2: Responsible Digital IDs 

This paper looks at global digital identity developments, the implications and opportunities for financial service providers, and how the emerging digital identity ecosystem is increasing access to finance and financial inclusion. 

Weekly Insight: Let's make a deal (please)

Pickup in volatility as uncertainty over trade and the economy climb to two-decade highs; Issuance of green and sustainable debt set to reach $400bn in 2019, with growing diversity in issuers; Many emerging markets will face tough challenges in LIBOR transition, given their reliance on FX debt and hedging; Weekly Insight will resume on October 24th, after the IIF Annual Membership Meeting, World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings

CFR October 2019: Capital Flows Swing on Trade Tensions

We see global growth slowing to 2.6% in 2019 and only recovering modestly in 2020. Trade tensions weigh on growth and stoke volatility in emerging market capital flows. Increasingly accommodative monetary policy supports risk appetite and flows to EM. Global push factors appear to be the key drivers of EM flows and asset performance. Investors’ search for yield is deepening synchronization across emerging markets. Differentiation is, to a significant degree, the result of changes in benchmark weights.

Global Macro Views: No Recession Signal from the US Labor Market

Slowing jobs growth is adding to already elevated recession fears. We show that recent slowing is consistent with a longer-term trend, reflecting the gradual tightening in the labor market over years. Slower jobs growth is therefore a symptom of a maturing labor market, and should not be interpreted as a signal that US recession is rising.

 

 

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