Inflation is trending down in many emerging markets. This is partially due to higher central bank credibility. EM inflation has also become increasingly synchronized. Persistently lower inflation could allow for more easing. Risk of reversals and country-specific shocks remains high.

This note summarizes the major themes and developments from the IIF's Digital Financial Inclusion Summit on November 7th, 2019 in Cairo, Egypt.
 

The PBoC recently lowered interest rates for the first time in four years by 5 basis points, remaining more hawkish than its peers. The PBoC is constrained by elevated CPI, uncertain RMB & outflows, and the housing market. We expect additional slow, gradual interest rate cuts in the coming quarters. 

Growth underperformance has amplified social demands for change. While protests will weigh on growth, as in other EMs facing social turmoil, several mitigating factors exist. Bolstering a more inclusive agenda is a tall order, and the risk of erosion of macro fundamentals and institutions is high. 

The IIF’s key observations and takeaways from the fourth Singapore FinTech Festival, held November 11-15. 

ECB tiering—how much help for Europe’s banks?; Low rates spur institutional investors’ appetite for alternatives—now over 25% of U.S. public pension fund allocations; Shift towards renewable energy continues to grow—but there’s a long road ahead; Many major emerging markets remain heavily reliant on coal for power generation—notably South Africa, China and India