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Macro Notes: CEEMEA Avoids Worst Case COVID-19 Scenario

CEEMEA countries recovered faster from the initial COVID-19 shock than expected. This is mainly due to virus containment allowing for a faster reopening of businesses. As a result, we are revising our estimate of the contraction in 2020 from 5.2% to 3.2%. However, a second wave of infections weighed on economic activity in recent months. We expect modest growth of 3.8% in 2021, but much depends on vaccinations efforts.

Frontier LatAm: Ecuador’s Fiscal Adjustment Prospects 

Ecuador’s IMF program entails steady fiscal adjustment. The government has kept austerity, redirecting spending to cope with COVID-19. However, implementation risk is on the rise ahead of the 2021 presidential election. Policy slippage could result in a challenging funding situation.

Economic Views: Can EMs Create Enough Jobs?

COVID-19 derailed global growth and EMs are still recovering. Beyond cyclical fluctuations, EM growth is on a secular decline, … possibly m...

2021 IIF Virtual Investor Trips Schedule

Schedule for the IIF's 2021 virtual investor trips released.

IAIS Report on Cyber Risk Underwriting

The IIF prepared a summary of the report and the CUSG’s recommendations to the IAIS.

IIF January 2021 Global Regulatory Update 

The January 2021 Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.

Iraq: Facing Challenges from Multiple Fronts 

The economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, unstable political situation, and the decline in oil prices and production. The devaluation combined with a modest recovery in oil prices could put the fiscal stance on a more sustainable footing. Improved governance is also needed to implement reforms. 

Sustainable Debt Monitor: Up, up and away

Global sustainable debt issuance hit an all-time record of over $655 billion in 2020, driven by rapid growth in ESG and sustainability-linked bonds. A more supportive global policy landscape could spur even more issuance in 2021

Prudential Pathways: Industry Perspectives on Supervisory and Regulatory Approaches to Climate-Related and Environmental Risks

The objective of this paper is to communicate global industry views on the rapidly evolving set of supervisory and regulatory approaches to climate-related and environmental risks facing the banking and insurance sectors.

GMV: Lessons from the 2013 Taper Tantrum

Last week we proposed using positive data surprises as a test of Fed forward guidance. Intuitively, Fed forward guidance is a promise to keep rates ...
 

 

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