CEEMEA countries recovered faster from the initial COVID-19 shock than expected. This is mainly due to virus containment allowing for a faster reopening of businesses. As a result, we are revising our estimate of the contraction in 2020 from 5.2% to 3.2%. However, a second wave of infections weighed on economic activity in recent months. We expect modest growth of 3.8% in 2021, but much depends on vaccinations efforts.

Ecuador’s IMF program entails steady fiscal adjustment. The government has kept austerity, redirecting spending to cope with COVID-19. However, implementation risk is on the rise ahead of the 2021 presidential election. Policy slippage could result in a challenging funding situation.

The January 2021 Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.

The economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, unstable political situation, and the decline in oil prices and production. The devaluation combined with a modest recovery in oil prices could put the fiscal stance on a more sustainable footing. Improved governance is also needed to implement reforms. 

Global sustainable debt issuance hit an all-time record of over $655 billion in 2020, driven by rapid growth in ESG and sustainability-linked bonds. A more supportive global policy landscape could spur even more issuance in 2021