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Economic Views: Venezuela’s Oil Sector under Sanctions

Venezuela’s oil sector has been in decline for decades. As in Iran, US sanctions are having a severe impact, making the oil output collapse almost unprecedented. Even though sanctions did not deter Asian buyers, the oil sector’s outlook is dim unless policies change.

FRT Episode 38: Debunking Misconceptions on Machine Learning Interpretability

FRT welcomes Dr. Bill Kahn, leading data scientist and financial modeling executive, formerly at Bank of America where he led the IIF Machine Learning...

Voluntary Principles For Debt Transparency

A new set of private sector principles to enhance transparency in sovereign debt markets.

G20 Supports the IIF’s Principles for Debt Transparency

This weekend, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors issued a statement of support for the Institute of International Finance (IIF)’s Voluntary Principles for Debt Transparency following a meeting in Fukuoka, Japan. 

Remarks To G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

As prepared for delivery to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Fukuoka, Japan   Introduction Thank you, Depu...

Global Macro Views: Nonsense Output Gaps and the Phillips Curve

Phillips curves provide a useful lens through which to look at output gaps, since they link the degree of economic slack to the pace of underlying inflation. Estimates for structural unemployment in the Euro periphery look too high given how low inflation historically, which supports our earlier analysis that Euro periphery output gaps remain large.

Saudi Arabia: Increase in U.S. Treasury Holdings

Holdings of U.S. Treasuries have increased, driven by portfolio restructuring in GOSI and the PIF. As across the GCC, public foreign assets exceed official reserves of the central bank. A further increase in the PIF’s assets abroad is set to improve the country's international investment position. 

Sustainable Finance in Focus: Climate change: a core financial stability risk

In this short overview, we highlight climate risks to financial stability; Even in a benign scenario, some $2.5 trillion of global financial assets are estimated to be at risk from the impact of climate change; A low-carbon transition can have a substantial positive net growth effect on GDP, outweighing costs... but transition and physical risks are growing as countries fall behind on emission targets

China Views: Fighting Trade and Consumption Headwinds

China currently faces headwinds to growth from both US tariffs and weaker domestic consumption. Compared with 2016, another period of soft exports and weak demand, many cyclical indicators—such as investment and retail—are weaker now, but structural indicators are more promising. 

CEEMEA Views: Poland - Procyclical Fiscal Policy

A fiscal stimulus program provided support to private consumption and growth in early 2019. Accommodative policies are expected to continue through 2020, helping growth to remain robust. One-off revenues and cyclically strong tax collection will mask the deterioration in fiscal discipline. 

 

 

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